Groucho48
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Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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The latest Chicago Booth poll of economists focuses on the 2009 stimulus. The first question asked whether the stimulus increased employment by the end of 2010. Eighty percent of the polled economists agreed. Four percent disagreed. Two percent were uncertain.
The second question asked whether, over the long run, the benefits would outweigh the long-term costs (like paying down the extra debt). Forty-six percent agreed. Twelve percent disagreed. Twenty-seven percent were uncertain.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/four-out-of-five-economists-agree-the-stimulus-created-jobs/2011/08/25/gIQAb1CbPR_blog.html
Meanwhile, in Europe, where they went with austerity instead of stimulus,
Specifically, in early 2010 austerity economics — the insistence that governments should slash spending even in the face of high unemployment — became all the rage in European capitals. The doctrine asserted that the direct negative effects of spending cuts on employment would be offset by changes in “confidence,†that savage spending cuts would lead to a surge in consumer and business spending, while nations failing to make such cuts would see capital flight and soaring interest rates. If this sounds to you like something Herbert Hoover might have said, you’re right: It does and he did.
Now the results are in — and they’re exactly what three generations’ worth of economic analysis and all the lessons of history should have told you would happen. The confidence fairy has failed to show up: none of the countries slashing spending have seen the predicted private-sector surge. Instead, the depressing effects of fiscal austerity have been reinforced by falling private spending.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/opinion/krugman-pain-without-gain.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
One of these days the right might be right about something to do with the economy, but, I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Mastara
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what about the economists that dont agree? Or did they take this to all of them and asked if they did or did not?
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Ptilk
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Austerity is the most stupid idea ever conceived in politics. It fails every time, yet some keep on preaching it.
Thankfully, OWS changed the conversation from "should we embrace austerity?" to "Are you fecking insane? Shut up bitch".
We dodged a bullet.....this time.
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Aerlinthian
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Washington Post
New York Times
Ezra Klein
Paul Krugman
Nope, not at all biased sources there.
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SoBaKi
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Aerlinthian posted:
NEWSPAPERS AND JEWS!
Nope, not at all biased sources there.
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AzureTyger
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The right lives in a fantasy world.
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Mastara
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The left lives in a bubble.
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GrilledCheez
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The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
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Groucho48
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GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
The reason for the second question is to answer the doubt you mention about the first question.
Did it work? Yes
Did the cost of its working out weigh the benefits? No.
We could posit all sorts of hypotheticals and ask about them, but, most folks like to look back at any massive government effort and question whether it was worth it. Especially when there is a whole right wing industry claiming it didn't work.
Most economists seem to think it was worth it.
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Rhint
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Yeah, the stimulus worked. Did it work well enough for what it cost? That is the question.
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imaloon1
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GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
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Moe_Nox
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imaloon1 posted:
GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
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paulg_68
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Groucho48 posted:
Mission accomplished... unless you look at things like the economy or the debt.
To be fair the stimulus accomplished exactly what it was intended for. It paid back Obama supporters 1000 to 1 for every dollar they gave to his campaign. Pork, the other white meat.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Moe_Nox posted:
imaloon1 posted:
GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
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GrilledCheez
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Groucho48 posted:
GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
The reason for the second question is to answer the doubt you mention about the first question.
Did it work? Yes
Did the cost of its working out weigh the benefits? No.
We could posit all sorts of hypotheticals and ask about them, but, most folks like to look back at any massive government effort and question whether it was worth it. Especially when there is a whole right wing industry claiming it didn't work.
Most economists seem to think it was worth it.
Asking if it was worth the money it cost doesn't answer the question of even whether they would have done the same thing. It means they are on board that it happened, but it doesn't mean they agree with either the mechanism, the speed, the oversight, the scope or anything else about it.
I'll give you an example from my own life. I had a tooth that was giving me trouble. I went to the dentist and he did some crap. It cost me 1500 bones, and lasted a couple years. I then went to a much more competent dentist and he did some more crap that cost a lot more because the first dentist didn't do as well as he should have.
Now under the questions on your poll, I would answer that I am glad I went to the first dentist and that it was worth the 1500 bones. Why? because the alternative of not going would have been much worse and a lot less desirable for me. However, my real opinion is that the first dentist was kind of a boob and I would have been better off never having met him.
Again polls can say what you want them to say.
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Ptilk
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Anyone bitching about the stimulus in any way other that to point out that it was too small...is an idiot.
Seriously. Gotta be pretty damn stupid to still be against something that clearly worked as intended.
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PackHunter
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Isn't it great how so many people without any formal training on a subject are such experts on it!
Next we'll hear how Libertarian and Austrian economic theories have been proven to work from these experts.
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GrilledCheez
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I like the experts who are really only good at proclaiming themselves expert.
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Groucho48
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From the right a lot of argl-bargle and the claim that, well, other stuff would have been better. Same as with the auto bailout. A car company has record profits and the right says...well, OUR way would have been even better! So, there!!! Socialism!!! Marxism!!! Obama is the devil!!! Biased sources!!
Well, yeah, a bigger stimulus would have been better. Austerity, which the right is STLL pushing, would have us as bad off as Europe.
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cabbyman
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It makes that when times are good we spend way more than we take in and then when times are bad we spend way more than we take in.
That is very smrt.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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cabbyman posted:
It makes that when times are good we spend way more than we take in and then when times are bad we spend way more than we take in.
That is very smrt.
'merica is gifted, that way.
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Aerlinthian
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Spending money you don't have, can't budget for and have very dubious future prospects for is a good plan!
Okay, sorry, it's not really funny. But hey, what else are you going to do at this point.
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AzureTyger
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Groucho48 posted:
From the right a lot of argl-bargle and the claim that, well, other stuff would have been better. Same as with the auto bailout. A car company has record profits and the right says...well, OUR way would have been even better! So, there!!! Socialism!!! Marxism!!! Obama is the devil!!! Biased sources!!
Well, yeah, a bigger stimulus would have been better. Austerity, which the right is STLL pushing, would have us as bad off as Europe.
The building recovery is a disaster to the Republicans. Their entire platform is "not Obama (the secret black Muslim socialist)". The further we go, the more successful the Obama presidency looks, so of course they are going to dig in their heels on successes like the stimulus.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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@Aer : I know...
And it honestly, sincerely ASTOUNDS me the lengths that supposedly serious people will keep going to in order to justify it.
I don't mean the typical useful idiots around here. I mean, supposedly intelligent people. With Ph.D.'s and other credentials.
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Brother_Tempus
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AzureTyger posted:
The right lives in a fantasy world.
a low record of 64% labor participation rate and yet unemployment is 8-9%???? ... who is living in a fantasy world?
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Lyken-P
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@ OP
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AzureTyger posted:
Groucho48 posted:
From the right a lot of argl-bargle and the claim that, well, other stuff would have been better. Same as with the auto bailout. A car company has record profits and the right says...well, OUR way would have been even better! So, there!!! Socialism!!! Marxism!!! Obama is the devil!!! Biased sources!!
Well, yeah, a bigger stimulus would have been better. Austerity, which the right is STLL pushing, would have us as bad off as Europe.
The building recovery is a disaster to the Republicans. Their entire platform is "not Obama (the secret black Muslim socialist)". The further we go, the more successful the Obama presidency looks, so of course they are going to dig in their heels on successes like the stimulus.
Just like every presidential before it the economy will play a major role in who is elected.
A great economy virtually guarantees an Obama victory.
$5/gal gas this summer will doom him.
So exciting!
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Groucho48
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Still no arguments against what the economists agreed to.
Apparently you guys don't have any legitimate arguments against the success of the stimulus so you are reduced to making emoticons.
Pretty much symbolizes this election cycle for Republicans. Make a lot of noise, laugh at anything Democrats do or say and pretend you are actually making a case for something.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Groucho48 posted:
Still no arguments against what the economists agreed to.
Grilled already covered this.
The framing of the question in the poll is about as nebulous as "Is there, or might there possibly be, a God?"
It's not worth serious discussion. Hence... you're getting none.
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Bowlartz
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Interest rates had a bigger impact.
But I sure will take the word of liberal economists.
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Groucho48
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Question B: Taking into account all of the ARRA's economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Seems pretty clear to me. Economists agree that the stimulus was a success. You guys can try to sidestep and say other things would have been better or that they all must be liberals. But, if that's all you've got, you don't have much.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
Groucho48 posted:
Still no arguments against what the economists agreed to.
Grilled already covered this.
The framing of the question in the poll is about as nebulous as "Is there, or might there possibly be, a God?"
It's not worth serious discussion. Hence... you're getting none.
Chicago 'School' posted:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJNsZgHCVKU#t=44s
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They can't help it. Having the US economy going again is the worst possible thing they can think of. Wanting the country to fail so they can laugh at Obama is all they have going for them.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Ptilk posted:
They can't help it. Having the US economy going again is the worst possible thing they can think of. Wanting the country to fail so they can laugh at Obama is all they have going for them.
Me? You think anyone with an above-room-temperature IQ gives a crap about politicized unemployment %'s, in the face of a debt curve which never bends and a labor participation rate that's hitting all-time lows in this 'recovery'?
It makes no difference if a statist spendthrift annihilistic whore with a D is in the office, or one with an R is in there.
They're both whores.
The only question is, which one is less insane with teh syphillis?
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"Seems pretty clear to me. Liberal Economists agree"
I don't believe anyone is arguing this point.
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GrilledCheez
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no real dent at all in unemployment and all the sudden the US economy is "going again?" WTF are you guys smoking? I mean certain indicators have been up and down for ten years, but our labor woes are not on the way out. If you believe they are you have a serious thinking problem.
Wages down. underemployment up. Benefits down and employee participation in costs are rising. Government payouts at an all time high. over all growth embarrassing, control for growth that affects local labor and it is negative.
if the stimulus worked and was worth the money why didn't they do it ten times and get us out of this mess?
It didn't' even look like a majority of economists thought the stimulus was worth it in what you quoted at top, even with the spurious definition used.
I'm probably more labor liberal than anyone else on this board. you guys being easy and pretending like almost conservative policies are all super awesome is as bad for american progressive thoughts and politics as cabbyman's opinions.
You deserve to lose.
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PackHunter
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GrilledCheez posted:
GIMME FREE EDUCATION!
Lazy socialist.
Maybe you can tell us all how to perform open heart surgery next? And then give a dissertation on how to rebuild an A-727 transmission?
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poetkiosk
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I love how everyone on the Outpost is an expert. It is very funny to watch a bunch of IT guys pontificate about everything, while knowing everything.
At least Groucho is referencing an article with actual experts.
Of course he can't compete with the super secret knowledge of watching finance channels on tv.
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armoredgimp
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what are your taxes going to be in 6 months?
what expenses will you no longer be allowed to write off?
will your company be lynched for following the rules and paying what the law asks you to pay?
what new regulations will be put in place by unelected officials?
what new obligation will your business have and what will that cost per employee?
you can put the tax rate at 50% and if i can make a buck do you think i wont just because uncle Sam will take half, nope, i will make that buck.
But if i don't know if it is going to be 40%, 50% or 80%, i will sit on my capital and not hire that extra employee.
I wont by that extra truck or welder if i can get by with what i have.
I will get leaner and save against the future and keep what skilled employees i can
Uncertainty about what Obama will do next and his past performance is why this recovery is so sluggish.
Yes you let companies fail, the thing that is broken and caused them to fail will not get fixed otherwise.
The employee of that company with his or her own ideas will never make that start up business and forge their own way.
the stimulus was the wrong approach, but thats just my opinion.
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Tych2
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When gas hits $5 plus a gallon and the economy stalls and even slides backwards what will you claim then?
Let me predict your response. "It's the other guy's fault!".
Gee didn't see that coming.
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Taliesihne
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armoredgimp posted:
what are your taxes going to be in 6 months?
what expenses will you no longer be allowed to write off?
will your company be lynched for following the rules and paying what the law asks you to pay?
what new regulations will be put in place by unelected officials?
what new obligation will your business have and what will that cost per employee?
I would be uncertain too if I didn't realize that I needed answers from Congress to these questions.
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Grymlo
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Yep it worked.......real unemployment is over 12%, gas prices are going to be over 4 bucks or more soon and the debt.....
Libs live in a world of their own.
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Sin_of_Onin
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GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
"Most efficient" is a stupid question for a poll.
You are also answering the questions wrong from the standpoint on how an economist would be expected to answer the questions.
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cabbyman posted:
It makes that when times are good we spend way more than we take in and then when times are bad we spend way more than we take in.
That is very smrt.
When times are good the Republicans spend more than we take in and claim debt doesn't matter.
When the ship hits the fan, they claim we should cut taxes on the rich.
THAT is very "smrt."
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Jaedence
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GrilledCheez posted:
no real dent at all in unemployment and all the sudden the US economy is "going again?" WTF are you guys smoking? I mean certain indicators have been up and down for ten years, but our labor woes are not on the way out. If you believe they are you have a serious thinking problem.
Wages down. underemployment up. Benefits down and employee participation in costs are rising. Government payouts at an all time high. over all growth embarrassing, control for growth that affects local labor and it is negative.
if the stimulus worked and was worth the money why didn't they do it ten times and get us out of this mess?
It didn't' even look like a majority of economists thought the stimulus was worth it in what you quoted at top, even with the spurious definition used.
I'm probably more labor liberal than anyone else on this board. you guys being easy and pretending like almost conservative policies are all super awesome is as bad for american progressive thoughts and politics as cabbyman's opinions.
You deserve to lose.
The answer to all of your questions lies in the failure of trickle down economics.
Employment is at an all time low yet major companies are recording record profits and the wealthiest people in America keep giving themselves bonuses.
Who exactly do you think is the cause of wages being low and companies not hiring?
Could it be.... companies making record profits?
DING DING DING!!!
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SoBaKi
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Tych2 posted:
When gas hits $5 plus a gallon and the economy stalls and even slides backwards what will you claim then?
Let me predict your response. "It's the other guy's fault!".
Gee didn't see that coming.
When GWB went into Iraq, the Right proclaimed that gas prices would stablize AND lower. Didn't happen. Even with a DIRECT action taken by GWB to go into Iraq, gas prices only went up (Exxon is STILL recording record profits). Granted, demand for oil is up everyPHUCKINGwhere on the planet......
Now, with Obama, Iran starts to argle-bargle about the strait of hormuz, futures traders scream bloody murder inciting fear and forcing the price of a barrel of oil to go up, yet Obama hasn't done anything but keep a U.S. Navy presence in/near the Strait yet $5/per gallon for gas is because of Obama?
If it were up to me, given just how important oil is around the globe, ALL futures trading on oil would cease and desist. The goddamn commodity is too important (for EVERYTHING) to be used for gambling schmucks.
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SoBaKi
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Grymlo posted:
Yep it worked.......real unemployment is over 12%, gas prices are going to be over 4 bucks or more soon and the debt.....
Libs live in a world of their own.
Yeah, we know, when it's your guy, debt is GREAT!
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Grymlo
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SoBaKi posted:
Grymlo posted:
Yep it worked.......real unemployment is over 12%, gas prices are going to be over 4 bucks or more soon and the debt.....
Libs live in a world of their own.
Yeah, we know, when it's your guy, debt is GREAT!
Yep that makes it ok for your guy 
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SoBaKi
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Grymlo posted:
SoBaKi posted:
Grymlo posted:
Yep it worked.......real unemployment is over 12%, gas prices are going to be over 4 bucks or more soon and the debt.....
Libs live in a world of their own.
Yeah, we know, when it's your guy, debt is GREAT!
Yep that makes it ok for your guy
Not at all, however, you'd likely get more support had you kept a more bi-partisan position during the 8 years of Bush. That fact that the left is yet again, forced to take the higher road, pretty much means at least adults are at the wheel.
At least until Frothy anal lube becomes president.
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Tych2
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SoBaKi posted:
If it were up to me, given just how important oil is around the globe, ALL futures trading on oil would cease and desist. The goddamn commodity is too important (for EVERYTHING) to be used for gambling schmucks.
 I can't argue with that.
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GrilledCheez
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Is it ironic that a group of laymen drawing conclusions about a poll of economists are supporting the idea that no laymen can successfully draw conclusions about a poll of economists?
And also why do the erudite and educated thinkers believe that nobody else should think about things or discuss things? What triggers the idea in someone's brain that they are so vastly superior to others that they should be the only ones allowed to talk? I bet those guys are fun at parties.
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Ashmaele
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Tych2 posted:
SoBaKi posted:
If it were up to me, given just how important oil is around the globe, ALL futures trading on oil would cease and desist. The goddamn commodity is too important (for EVERYTHING) to be used for gambling schmucks.
I can't argue with that.
Somewhere out there a lobbyist just choked on his mocha.
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Grymlo
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SoBaKi posted:
Grymlo posted:
SoBaKi posted:
[quote=Grymlo]Yep it worked.......real unemployment is over 12%, gas prices are going to be over 4 bucks or more soon and the debt.....
Libs live in a world of their own.
Yeah, we know, when it's your guy, debt is GREAT!
Yep that makes it ok for your guy
Not at all, however, you'd likely get more support had you kept a more bi-partisan position during the 8 years of Bush. That fact that the left is yet again, forced to take the higher road, pretty much means at least adults are at the wheel.
At least until Frothy anal lube becomes president.[/quote]
They are taking a higher road?
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Tych2
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Ashmaele posted:
Tych2 posted:
SoBaKi posted:
If it were up to me, given just how important oil is around the globe, ALL futures trading on oil would cease and desist. The goddamn commodity is too important (for EVERYTHING) to be used for gambling schmucks.
I can't argue with that.
Somewhere out there a lobbyist just choked on his mocha.
you don't need to entice me more. I am already on board!
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theredkay1
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GrilledCheez posted:
The first question was retarded. If it created one job then it passed that one. The second one was equally retarded. Asking if it was worth the cost is dumb. When there is a downturn any braking you can do is good. What they should have asked is was it the best or most efficient or most effective thing that could have been done. I assume those numbers would be hugely different.
So the only thing this proves is that polls say what you want them to say.
This is correct. However it kind of ignores the current state of the stimulus discussion.
The right wing is not criticizing the stimulus by saying 'well sure it worked and created a bunch of jobs, but we could have done even better if we had _____'.
There is a fairly large movement of people operating in a fantasy world. This survey contradicts their main economic argument.
It would be like a survey on wether or not the earth is flat. Sure it seems like a dumb question for people with brains...but that doesnt mean its a bad question
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theredkay1
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GrilledCheez posted:
if the stimulus worked and was worth the money why didn't they do it ten times and get us out of this mess?
Have you been paying attention the last few years (decades)?
It appears you stepped out of a time machine and forgot what country you live in.
GrilledCheez posted:
The stimulus must not have worked because Republicans and Democrats didnt agree on more of it! This must be true!
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Cawlin
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Tych2 posted:
SoBaKi posted:
If it were up to me, given just how important oil is around the globe, ALL futures trading on oil would cease and desist. The goddamn commodity is too important (for EVERYTHING) to be used for gambling schmucks.
I can't argue with that.
I totally agree with this. The trouble is in execution/enforcement. You'd need some sort of global agreement for it to have a chance in hell. Of course the oil rich nations would be against such an agreement. Lacking a global agreement the traders would just make another market and trade oil futures there...
Oil is so strategic there would be just as many nations willing to cut off their own noses to spite the US's or [insert nation here]'s face that it would be a real bitch to see some sort of agreement reached on a global level without the might of arms behind it.
The real answer is that we need alternative energy sources, and much much greater efficiency in the way we use fossil fuels. However getting a truly concerted effort going in that direction would be at least as contentious (as we already know) as trying to get a global moratorium on trading (manipulating) oil futures.
*edit for quote buildup*
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The bankers and large corps got bailed out but the middle class and poor are getting destroyed. This is what happens in a keynesian society. The rich got richer and the poor got poorer, it isn't a coincidence.
The FED gave 17 trillion to their millionaire and billionaire buddies and the government decided to change the way they calculate unemployment to remove people who are not eligible for unemployment benefits.
People need to ask the question, why is it that all these banks and credit card companies have all the money and I need to be a slave to them in order to survive. Discount window much?
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theredkay1
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Desnoxvu posted:
The basic foundation of keynsianism is.....BAILOUTS!!!
Inequality didnt exist before 1913.
I know this because I read it in a newsletter.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Desnoxvu posted:
The bankers and large corps got bailed out but the middle class and poor are getting destroyed. This is what happens in a keynesian society. The rich got richer and the poor got poorer, it isn't a coincidence.
The FED gave 17 trillion to their millionaire and billionaire buddies and the government decided to change the way they calculate unemployment to remove people who are not eligible for unemployment benefits.
People need to ask the question, why is it that all these banks and credit card companies have all the money and I need to be a slave to them in order to survive. Discount window much?
You see... this is a statement those on the "American left" should TOTALLY agree with. It is what happened, and crony capitalists made it happen. However, because you have a Ron Paul icon, since most of them are partisan Dem instead of being classically liberal (ie fiscal conservative, small state, civil libertarian)... they're going to figure out ways to rant against it.
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Sin_of_Onin
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What he said is nonsensical gibberish AA.
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B_Shinkicker
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Are these the same economists that laughed at dire economic warnings back in 2006?
Why do you keep listening to a group of people that have been nothing but consistently wrong the last 20 years?
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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
Desnoxvu posted:
The bankers and large corps got bailed out but the middle class and poor are getting destroyed. This is what happens in a keynesian society. The rich got richer and the poor got poorer, it isn't a coincidence.
The FED gave 17 trillion to their millionaire and billionaire buddies and the government decided to change the way they calculate unemployment to remove people who are not eligible for unemployment benefits.
People need to ask the question, why is it that all these banks and credit card companies have all the money and I need to be a slave to them in order to survive. Discount window much?
You see... this is a statement those on the "American left" should TOTALLY agree with. It is what happened, and crony capitalists made it happen. However, because you have a Ron Paul icon, since most of them are partisan Dem instead of being classically liberal (ie fiscal conservative, small state, civil libertarian)... they're going to figure out ways to rant against it.
The left agrees with his statement of the way things are: bailouts happened, banks have lots of money, inequality is expanding.
Why should the left (or anyone) agree with the rest of what he said? Because you wish they would?
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DemonicXH
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Because it's a question that needs to be answered..
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Sin_of_Onin
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B_Shinkicker posted:
Are these the same economists that laughed at dire economic warnings back in 2006?
Why do you keep listening to a group of people that have been nothing but consistently wrong the last 20 years?
Actually one thing that economists are usually not very good at as a group is understanding the specifics one one particular industry to the point that they could have predicted the latest crisis in full. As a group they can easily predict that housing prices going up as a result of the Fed lowering rates will eventually result in a reduction in prices. Some people beat their chests over this but most people didn't pay much attention because it was assumed even before the Fed Reserve made their move.
The fact that hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments were rated drastically higher than what their true rating was and that the nature of the debt instruments made it unclear what anyone's risk was after the crash was not predicted by many people at all.
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And the fact that the WO keeps toting unemployment numbers that totally exclude millions of people is a red flag.
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Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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I'm under the impression that the current raise in gas prices is due to commodity speculation on oil prices and not to do to any issues with supply and demand.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/02/21/Executive-Speculation-driving-oil-prices/UPI-27001329822937/?spt=hs&or=er
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SoBaKi
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Subject:
Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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Remnant_OBrien posted:
I'm under the impression that the current raise in gas prices is due to commodity speculation on oil prices and not to do to any issues with supply and demand.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/02/21/Executive-Speculation-driving-oil-prices/UPI-27001329822937/?spt=hs&or=er
Wrong thread Remnant.
http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/116177608/p1/?28
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theredkay1
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Subject:
Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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Its really hard to run economic experiments. But I think we have a good (although imperfect) one right now.
- A country running budget deficits is faced with a recession and a steep dropoff in consumer demand paired with low interest rates. The prescription for this country is: large government cutbacks, low inflation and no attempt to devalue the currency.
This appears to be pretty close to the prescription offered by many on the right. This is the way out. Government will shrink and the private economy will grow. Creditors will reward government cutbacks and business will feel more adventurous.
The results in Greece have been an utter disaster but strangely this has had no impact on the presription coming from the right. There seem to be two responses, 1) they just need more austerity and 2) lets stick our head in the sand and pretend Greece isnt following our plan. Sometimes people will alternate between the two.
- We have another example in England where the government undertook fiscal tightening (AUSTERITY!!) 2 years ago....and then shortly plunged back into a recession.
The response to this seems to again be a combination of #1 & #2 from above.
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Thugoneous
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Subject:
Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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Lady, people aren't chocolates. D'you know what they are mostly? Bastards. Bastard-coated bastards with bastard filling.
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SoBaKi
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Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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Thugoneous posted:
If this hurts your head that much, take an aspirin.
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Voodoo-Dahl
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Subject:
Economists Agree--The Stimulus Worked
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So how has austerity been working in countries that tried it? Greece, Ireland, Portugal, all jumped on the austerity bandwagon, all are in deeper holes than when they started.
Where are the austerity successes?
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