Nestor_II
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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8.2% and yet the number of people who aren't employed rises to a record of 88 million, Hmmmm something just doesn't seem right with those numbers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-miss-120k-expectations-205k-unemployment-82
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46975031
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HeartView
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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My company has hired 10 people so far this year... and we're a small business.
/shrug
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Brother_Tempus
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Subject:
8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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When you are not going to count all the people unemployed ( see the record low labor participation rate) does it really matter what you say the unemployment rate is?
If unemployment was really going away, people would not be so down about the economy or the government .... the people know they are being lied to ..
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Dwaveran
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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omg i am agreeing with BT. They need to count all the unemployed, NOT just the ones getting benefits.
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Fozzie_Bear
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Subject:
8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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is 8.2% the number of unemployed/under employed people or is that the number of people collecting unemployment benefits?
once a persons benefits END, is that person still being counted towards that figure?
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Brother_Tempus
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Subject:
8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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Fozzie_Bear posted:
is 8.2% the number of unemployed/under employed people or is that the number of people collecting unemployment benefits?
once a persons benefits END, is that person still being counted towards that figure?
No, they are no longer counted even though they are still unemployed ... we have seen a massive drop-off of those being counted as the 99ers have dropped off the UI rolls even though they are still unemployed
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Fozzie_Bear
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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well then there is your creative math in a nutshell. if they arent counting ALL the unemployed/under-employed then they are giving a BS figure for the majority of the people to count as the gospel truth.
typical
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levgre
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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What most people ignorantly don't realize is that the agency which determine unemployment % openly disclose the caveats, and give other figures/facts to paint a comprehensive picture of the job situation.
So it's not their fault you don't have the 'right' information. It's your fault for not listening to all they have to say.
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Nestor_II
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Most likely it is 12% or higher unemployment.
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-Mithan-
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Subject:
8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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Nestor_II posted:
8.2% and yet the number of people who aren't employed rises to a record of 88 million, Hmmmm something just doesn't seem right with those numbers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-miss-120k-expectations-2 05k-unemployment-82
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46975031
Don't be dumb and take Zerohedge at face value.
As much as the media skews things to the happy side, they skew it to the gloomy side.
If CNN says 10 and ZeroHedge says 20, average the numbers out for the truth.
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_Alexandra_
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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People are hiring like crazy all over the place (at least around where I live). A friend of mine who was out of work for 8 months just got a great job with Southwest Airlines. My boss just hired someone, my husband's company gave out HUGE bonuses and is hiring. Things are starting to look up employment wise.
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Sith_Mauler
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Subject:
8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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days of 5-6% unemployment are gone.
and I dont think they are going to return anytime in the near future.
near future= 5 years
the economy is slowing growing which is a good thing, however I think people have a false expectations that jobs will return as fast they where lost.
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Cawlin
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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Unemployment figures are constantly fudged and recalculated based on inconsistently applied rules from administration to administration, year to year, quarter to quarter. Look around you. Some of you are seeing hiring, some of you are seeing no change. Some of you are seeing more layoffs. Personally I am seeing more layoffs in my region.
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_Alexandra_
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http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/04/06/four-common-unemployment-myths/?mod=google_news_blog
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le_mot
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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I think they've hired around 200 where I work since the beginning of the year and we're getting more every week. (I think we normally had 75-100 per shift, probably 100-125 or so now) But, they are closing one of the plants in another state and we're getting all their stuff. So the jobs weren't 'created,' they just moved.
I think the people running out of unemployment is what is dropping the numbers more than anything.
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Sith_Mauler
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8.2% unemployment, Yeah Right !
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Lots of two income homes have been forced to learn to live on one income now.
I have a few friends who are in this situation.
One person still has a good job while the other works part time or not at all.
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Arch_Magi
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U-3 numbers are such a joke.
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-Ducky-
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HeartView posted:
My company has hired 10 people so far this year... and we're a small business.
/shrug
We hired someone new too and I think once they get more space they are going to hire someone else, but not sure. We are small though ~15 people. So hiring one or 2 is a lot. My clients keep coming in with news that they are working. I definitely feel the unemployment is going down.
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TheUnholyGhost
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Unemployment CLAIMS are down, because their benefits are running out.
It's all spin to make it sound like the Great Black Hope is actually doing something other than bending the country over and fraking it into oblivion.
And the morons of this country are buying into it...hook, line, and dumbass.
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notmforce2k
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Brother_Tempus posted:
If unemployment was really going away, people would not be so down about the economy or the government .... the people know they are being lied to ..
ITT: BT draws a correlation between employment and being happy. You do realize there are people who are employed and unhappy about the Government and economy, right? Like.... you. 
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notmforce2k
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TheUnholyGhost posted:
Unemployment CLAIMS are down, because their benefits are running out.
It's all spin to make it sound like the Great Black Hope is actually doing something other than bending the country over and fraking it into oblivion.
And the morons of this country are buying into it...hook, line, and dumbass.
Racism... check.
Exclusive blame... check.
Convinced that everyone else is blind but he and only he sees the truth... check.
Good luck surviving the next four years. Might want to look into some Prozac or something.
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TheUnholyGhost
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notmforce2k posted:
TheUnholyGhost posted:
Unemployment CLAIMS are down, because their benefits are running out.
It's all spin to make it sound like the Great Black Hope is actually doing something other than bending the country over and fraking it into oblivion.
And the morons of this country are buying into it...hook, line, and dumbass.
Racism... check.
Exclusive blame... check.
Convinced that everyone else is blind but he and only he sees the truth... check.
Good luck surviving the next four years. Might want to look into some Prozac or something.
Moron chiming in with random observations that have nothing to do with the subject because he is a bitter chub who has a hard on for me? Check.
I think I'll miss your dumb ass the most, MForce. Nothing has convinced me more that higher education does nothing for the idiots of this country than you actually graduating. 
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notmforce2k
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Ya, medicine does nothing for people. Literally staring at something that can kill people and sending them off to surgery does nothing. Calculating EF isn't important at all. What you just said could be the dumbest thing ever said on ACF.
And quoting you, citing exactly what you said, is as opposite of a "random observation" as you can get, babycakes. 
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Arch_Magi
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Using the governments U-3 numbers to get an accurate estimate of the percentage of people who don't have a job or full time employment who want it is about as useless as using the governments Consumer Price Index, which doesn't include the cost of food or fuel, to try to determine the cost of living.
Government lives in a fantasy land, and their methodologies do too.
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Brother_Tempus
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That's why I go with Shadowstats. They count unemployment the way it use to be, before the government started manipulating the system
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You win ACF, dude - Osmenthe
BT is usually right - Onslaught
i think we need more BT on page 1 - FighterUSAF
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Arch_Magi
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Subject:
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Brother_Tempus posted:
That's why I go with Shadowstats. They count unemployment the way it use to be, before the government started manipulating the system
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Brother_Tempus
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Arch_Magi posted:
Brother_Tempus posted:
That's why I go with Shadowstats. They count unemployment the way it use to be, before the government started manipulating the system
Correlate those 3 lines with the record-low Labor Participation Rate and then decide for yourselves, which line is closer to the truth
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Arch_Magi
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Brother_Tempus posted:
Correlate those 3 lines with the record-low Labor Participation Rate and then decide for yourselves, which line is closer to the truth
Preaching to the choir brother. I never have bought into the bull that the government spews. They are more self serving and self protecting than a vnboa... er, nevermind. 
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-Ducky-
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Today is Friday. I don't have time for doom and gloom. Get back with me on Sunday.
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So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. ~ Jack Layton
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jeune
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Lols sounds like some people are upset about how much gold has been tanking... which only shows that even the gold nuts are off their doom and gloom routine/ converting to something that will make them money.
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Brother_Tempus
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jeune posted:
Lols sounds like some people are upset about how much gold
I am sorry you are upset, I am enjoying the suppressed price to add more physical to my position
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jeune
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I am not upset I have zero invested in gold but just like to keep my eye on it.
Glad you are getting some joy from it... many people are hurting because they sold the family farm because Glenn Beck told them the U.S. govt was going to collapse.
I just warn you my friend... there is not reason that the gold bubble will not pop... like history has shown. Like the '80s
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Washington just dropped off the "high" list, and I suspect this is why. You are only counted if you keep filing a claim each week, after you exhaust your benefits.
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levgre
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Jezza_Belle posted:
Washington just dropped off the "high" list, and I suspect this is why. You are only counted if you keep filing a claim each week, after you exhaust your benefits.
Actually, no. Unemployment rate is not determined by claims. Unless you are talking about the "high list" for unemployment benefits.
Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.
Workers expecting to be recalled from layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).
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CSM-Fido
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Ive applied for 14 kitchen jobs in the last week alone. Every single restaurant/bar refused to even give out an application and would not accept an application due to over staffing for the NCAA tourney. They all said check back, in 2-3 months after they have been able to let some people go.
This is after the place i was currently working at let go of 75% of their staff 2 weeks before X-mas and used the "under new management" to get by paying unemployment. Not a single person has received a penny from unemployment from this incident.
Best part is, the bar went from 3 guys to 5 guys, one of the original 3 owners, still owns 51%, so they just added 2 more names and got around paying unemployment due to starting a new INC with a different name.
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-Abysmal-
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lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
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levgre
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-Abysmal- posted:
lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
Someone doesn't understand sample sizes and margin of error... better not trust national statistics since almost none of them do a census-like count!
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It sure seems that so many here *want* the US to fail, especially when it comes to jobs and unemployment. My question to this trend is: Why? So you can point a finger of blame towards Pres. Obama? Democrats? Greedy corporations? Or do I have it all wrong and you just want the government to paint the "truest" picture of the unemployment facts?
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Jezza_Belle
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levgre posted:
Jezza_Belle posted:
Washington just dropped off the "high" list, and I suspect this is why. You are only counted if you keep filing a claim each week, after you exhaust your benefits.
Actually, no. Unemployment rate is not determined by claims. Unless you are talking about the "high list" for unemployment benefits.
Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.
Workers expecting to be recalled from layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).
I was talking about the high list, like I stated in the beginning of my sentence. Do you get lost in your own bathroom?
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levgre
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No. I guess I've never heard of the "high list". I thought you meant high on the unemployment rankings, since that was the topic.
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-Abysmal-
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levgre posted:
-Abysmal- posted:
lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
Someone doesn't understand sample sizes and margin of error... better not trust national statistics since almost none of them do a census-like count!
how did i know this would be your pathetic response?
lets not forget this is a government agency doing this.
lets not forget this is the same government agency that was calling first big wave of UI recipient drop offs a good thing, you know, those people who's benefits EXPIRED.
what is the number of people they poll?
i might as well poll my house alone to determine my cities unemployment rate.
and BTW, we are talking government statistics...so keep your lame comments out of this.
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election year mathematics
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time to look for a godamn job you welfare bums
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levgre
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-Abysmal- posted:
levgre posted:
-Abysmal- posted:
lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
Someone doesn't understand sample sizes and margin of error... better not trust national statistics since almost none of them do a census-like count!
how did i know this would be your pathetic response?
lets not forget this is a government agency doing this.
lets not forget this is the same government agency that was calling first big wave of UI recipient drop offs a good thing, you know, those people who's benefits EXPIRED.
what is the number of people they poll?
i might as well poll my house alone to determine my cities unemployment rate.
and BTW, we are talking government statistics...so keep your lame comments out of this.
Well you can believe they fake the information if you want, no one can prove to you otherwise. Not that you should care much about their methodology if you think they're fakes.
They have two surveys, the first is Establishment (which gets info from business establishments), er misread at first. Here they explain their sample size.
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn1.htm
"The sample includes about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, which cover approximately 486,000 individual worksites drawn from a sampling frame of Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax accounts covering roughly 9 million establishments."
The second, household survey, is 72k households every month. They describe how accurate that is here:
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch1_f.htm
"It includes about 72,000 households from 754 sample areas, or PSUs, and maintains a 1.9-percent CV on national monthly estimates of unemployment level. This translates into a change of 0.2 percentage point in the unemployment rate being significant at a 90-percent confidence level. For each of the 50 States and for the District of Columbia, the design maintains a CV of at most 8 percent on the annual average estimate of unemployment level, assuming a 6-percent unemployment rate. Due to the national reliability criterion, estimates for several large States are substantially more reliable than the State design criterion requires. Annual average unemployment estimates for California, Florida, New York, and Texas, for example, carry a CV of less than 4 percent."
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How we count unemployment has long been flawed. Unfortunately the political fallout for changing it to something more accurate would be disastrous for any incumbent.
The numbers are getting better and that's what is really behind the reactions. Democrats love it and ignore the flaws, Republicans point out the flaws and ignore that they counted things the same way.
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I think unemployment is a lot better figure when you are actually in a healthy economy. Coming out of a recession, what is more important is number of jobs being created, and of what type/market.
Basically the employment situation this month didn't really change for better or worse. Why did less people start looking for work? There are tons of reasons job seeker numbers fluctuate, you don't know the answer unless you look closely. It could be good, bad, or neutral.
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levgre posted:
-Abysmal- posted:
lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
Someone doesn't understand
government spin ... yes lev, we know you don;t understand
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Bat_Avenger posted:
election year mathematics
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levgre
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Brother_Tempus posted:
levgre posted:
-Abysmal- posted:
lets also not lose sight that the unemployed are not actually COUNTED at all...a small percentage are polled.
Someone doesn't understand
government spin ... yes lev, we know you don;t understand
I recognize when an organization shows comprehensive and thorough analysis methods. That said, it could still be poorly executed. I have seen no evidence of this.
Do you have any credible source showing the BLS statistics are off? (shadowstats isn't credible, it is a for profit scam)
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levgre posted:
Do you have any credible source showing the BLS statistics are off? (shadowstats isn't credible, it is a for profit scam)
you easily dismiss shadowstats but fully trust the government. 
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How about we dismiss both of them?
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notmforce2k posted:
How about we dismiss both of them?
That makes sense
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levgre
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-Abysmal- posted:
levgre posted:
Do you have any credible source showing the BLS statistics are off? (shadowstats isn't credible, it is a for profit scam)
you easily dismiss shadowstats but fully trust the government.
Except I didn't do either of these. Be a bit more wrong k..
I asked for a credible source that offers different statistical results from the government. That obviously implies a lack of full trust. Although I don't see them profiting much from lying, since there's likely watchdogs who would catch them. They provide such an abundance of particular stats that finding inaccuracies would be easy.
For Shadowstats, I have checked out their site and the creator. It is ran by a person lacking credibility, charges a high monthly price, and caters towards an extremist audience.
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levgre posted:
-Abysmal- posted:
levgre posted:
Do you have any credible source showing the BLS statistics are off? (shadowstats isn't credible, it is a for profit scam)
you easily dismiss shadowstats but fully trust the government.
Except I didn't do either of these. Be a bit more wrong k..
I asked for a credible source that offers different statistical results from the government. That obviously implies a lack of full trust. Although I don't see them profiting much from lying, since there's likely watchdogs who would catch them. They provide such an abundance of particular stats that finding inaccuracies would be easy.
For Shadowstats, I have checked out their site and the creator. It is ran by a person lacking credibility, charges a high monthly price, and caters towards an extremist audience.
you keep citing government info, that to pretty much anyone would imply you trust them.
you said a group isn't credible, that to pretty much anyone would imply you do not trust them.
AND, the kicker, you bring up money.
carry on levgre...you're a funny tool!
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