Sansfear
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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I was expecting more jobs and unemployment to go UP as people returned to the work force. Guess I'm 0/2.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/06/news/economy/jobs-report-unemployment/index.htm
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Brother_Tempus
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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When you are not going to count all the people unemployed ( see the record low labor participation rate) does it really matter what you say the unemployment rate is?
If unemployment was really going away, people would not be so down about the economy or the government .... the people know they are being lied to ..
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Akza
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Brother_Tempus posted:
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·»Teydis ¤ Igraine«· ·»»·â€œ ¤Herra¤ “·««· http://www.backloggery.com/teylix
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Brother_Tempus
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Akza posted:
Fixed for accuracy
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hypocracy3
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Brother_Tempus posted:
Fixed for redundancy..
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Bowlartz
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/11006026-sharp-drop-in-jobless-rate-raises-questions-for-economists?lite
"For the past 50 years, it’s been widely assumed that the jobless rate can’t fall much unless the economy expands faster than its normal pace. Anything less only creates enough jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force -- not absorb the millions left unemployed by the latest downturn.
But over the past six months, the U.S. unemployment rate has surprised economists by rapidly falling to 8.3 percent from 9.1 percent even as the economy has yet to get back up to pre-recession speed. According to the textbooks, that’s not supposed to happen.
The unexplained drop has touched off a debate among dismal scientists, who have gone back to their chalkboards to try to figure out what is happening."
You certainly don't need a PHD in economics to figure it out the answer is simple, it is an election year.
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Bjorvald
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Bowlartz posted:
http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/11006026-sharp-drop-in-jobless-rate-raises-questions-for-economists?lite
"For the past 50 years, it’s been widely assumed that the jobless rate can’t fall much unless the economy expands faster than its normal pace. Anything less only creates enough jobs to keep up with the growth of the labor force -- not absorb the millions left unemployed by the latest downturn.
But over the past six months, the U.S. unemployment rate has surprised economists by rapidly falling to 8.3 percent from 9.1 percent even as the economy has yet to get back up to pre-recession speed. According to the textbooks, that’s not supposed to happen.
The unexplained drop has touched off a debate among dismal scientists, who have gone back to their chalkboards to try to figure out what is happening."
You certainly don't need a PHD in economics to figure it out the answer is simple, it is an election year.
The real jobless rate is around 11%. Much higher if you include part timers who want full time and discouraged workers.
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Fist_de_Yuma
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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If you stop counting half the people the numbers are sure to go down. Companies about to fail cook the books all the time. Obama just took it to a new level.
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theredkay1
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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The 'real jobless' rate has been falling rapidly as well. It doesnt really matter which measurement you use. Not sure why people who feel the need to always correct the official unemployment rate with one of the other unemployment calculations always fail to mention that their preferred rate is also dropping. curious.
The unemployment change puzzle 2 posts up is partly explained by 2011. The mismatch was puzzling economists and leaving many wondering why the economy wasnt adding more jobs.
not a great report. really looks like the warm winter boosted jobs in Jan and Feb by pulling forward some of the March jobs...the unadjusted numbers show almost a million jobs created in March.
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Brother_Tempus
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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theredkay1 posted:
The 'real jobless' rate has been falling rapidly as well. It doesnt really matter which measurement you use.
The Labor Participation Rate disproves red's statement
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Kjarhall
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Labor Participation Rate isn't any more accurate than the one you're calling inaccurate.
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Bowlartz
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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theredkay1 posted:
The 'real jobless' rate has been falling rapidly as well. It doesnt really matter which measurement you use. Not sure why people who feel the need to always correct the official unemployment rate with one of the other unemployment calculations always fail to mention that their preferred rate is also dropping. curious.
The unemployment change puzzle 2 posts up is partly explained by 2011. The mismatch was puzzling economists and leaving many wondering why the economy wasnt adding more jobs.
not a great report. really looks like the warm winter boosted jobs in Jan and Feb by pulling forward some of the March jobs...the unadjusted numbers show almost a million jobs created in March.
http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/06/11053225-us-unemployment-rate-slips-but-job-creation-slows?lite
"The drop in the unemployment rate, to the lowest level since January 2009, reflected a drop in the labor force. The separate household survey, from which the jobless rate is derived also showed a drop in employment.
The private sector added 121,000 new positions in March, while government employment edged down 1,000."
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-Espiritu-
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Total US Jobs
December 2007 = 138,000,000 Jobs
March 2012 = 132,800,000 Jobs
The labor force has grown by 4,600,000 in that same time period, meaning we need 9,800,000 jobs to get back to where we were before. This means we will need to create 259,000 jobs every month until the end of Obama's second term as President.
That is not out of the realm of possibility, but is more than double what we created in March.
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Ashmaele
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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-Espiritu- posted:
Total US Jobs
December 2007 = 138,000,000 Jobs
March 2012 = 132,800,000 Jobs
The labor force has grown by 4,600,000 in that same time period, meaning we need 9,800,000 jobs to get back to where we were before. This means we will need to create 259,000 jobs every month until the end of Obama's second term as President.
That is not out of the realm of possibility, but is more than double what we created in March.
Wow that number has gone up significantly in recent years.
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Bowlartz
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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The problem is not that people see that there is some good news on the job front, there is and has been good news coming for the past 8 months it is slow but steady. The problem is that there is no way to say that the unemployment rate is dropping like it has with these mediocre numbers and not be lying through your teeth.
Which is why it is clearly a case of election year number games. Every President in the past 40 years has done it. The issue is that this year they aren't even trying to pretend.
At this pace the rate will be at 6% or lower by Oct 30th all the while the GDP not seeing a quarter above 2%....
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Yukishiro1
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Bowlartz posted:
The problem is not that people see that there is some good news on the job front, there is and has been good news coming for the past 8 months it is slow but steady. The problem is that there is no way to say that the unemployment rate is dropping like it has with these mediocre numbers and not be lying through your teeth.
Which is why it is clearly a case of election year number games. Every President in the past 40 years has done it. The issue is that this year they aren't even trying to pretend.
At this pace the rate will be at 6% or lower by Oct 30th all the while the GDP not seeing a quarter above 2%....
You're not very smart. The reporting criteria hasn't changed at all.
The reason unemployment is falling without creating a ton of new jobs is more people are leaving the workforce permanently. Some of them are baby boombers and would have left anyhow. These we don't really have to worry about. Some of them went back to school, which may or may not be something to worry about.
The worrisome ones are the workers in their early 50s who have basically given up on getting another job.
If you were really right about them cooking the books, why wouldn't they cook the books on the job numbers too?
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Bowlartz
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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"You're not very smart. The reporting criteria hasn't changed at all."
Yet recently we have article after article on the various business portions of the "news" sites concerning how the numbers fly in the face of all mainstream economic theory and data over the last several decades. They simply have no answer for why all of the economic indicators state we are experiencing very mediocre growth but the unemployment numbers keep dropping. This includes looking at those who drop out of the work force. That accounts for some of the skew but as recently as January the work force was reported to have started to see solid numbers on those returning to seek employment with the previous months good job creation figures.
Essentially, if the number had dropped from say 9.1 to 8.7 or so over the same period it would have been explained by work force drop outs. Going to 8.2 has completely broken most economic models looking at the same data.
Either someone is playing with the figures in some fashion, the "Unemployment Calculation Formula" has much most serious flaws than we all already knew or we have a really bad accounting error. The later two should show up soon with all of the scrutiny now being focused on the "mystery drop".
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Friarspam
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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C'mon, say it with me:
Everyone is working. Nobody is hungry. We all have much nutritious food.
/North Korea off
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__Bonk__
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Obama just knows how to borrow and spend money. He is fail economically. I bet things wouldve been better if the government didnt get involved at all
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paulg_68
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Economic recovery is inevitable. The question is will the President's policies cause it to recover faster than it naturally would have or will the President's policies cause it to recover slower.
In the case of Obama, he is causing it to recover much slower than it would have if he'd done nothing.
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Fist_de_Yuma
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You think things are bad now? Wait until after the election when Obama will have more "flexability".
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Friarspam
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Fist_de_Yuma posted:
You think things are bad now? Wait until after the election when Obama will have more "flexability".
/this
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Fist_de_Yuma
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The polls say that Obama is pulling ahead do to the great employment numbers.
As the liberal forefather once said; “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.â€
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and overâ€
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Sansfear
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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One idea that occurred to me that might explain some of the inconsistencies. Feel free to critique/attack as I'm just throwing it out there.
I wonder if the official unemployment has actually been artificially higher due to the 99-week unemployment that people have been given. We've had millions of people that have been listed as 'looking for work' that would normally have fallen off of the roles months ago.
As more and more of them hit their 99-week deadline, they are over-inflating the numbers of those showing as leaving the labor force.
If the models are based on previous recessions, i wonder if they fully take into account the 2-year extension of unemployment benefits.
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Kjarhall
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Unemployment down to 8.2%, but only 120K jobs created
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Fist_de_Yuma posted:
The polls say that Obama is pulling ahead do to the great employment numbers.
As the liberal forefather once said; “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.â€
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and overâ€
 You're so willing to believe that things are being manipulated to favor Obama, but when people said that during the 2004 election you thought it was liberal lies.
So when the numbers favor a conservative, it's real and liberals are just trying to discredit it, but when the numbers favor a "liberal" they're not real and must be exposed.
So it's always.... LIBERAALLLSSSZZZ!!!!!
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