Ashmaele
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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Obummer 
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GrilledCheez
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There are very positive things going on in the job market where I am. in fact I have a phone interview today where the HR folks actively hunted me down and called me. I hadn't even updated a resume for two years.
I still think we have a lot of downs before we hit solid ups, but I'd love to be wrong.
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ZigmundZag
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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No worries. The 200K public sector jobs that Republicans cut out will keep things balanced.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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I'll be tied up when the next actual report from the gov't comes out so I'll have to look back in retrospect and see what it was.
These adp reports are pretty useless, however, except as a general direction the wind is blowing.
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ZigmundZag
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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CNN is saying it's still under the projection, so it's not being perceived as good news.
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Ashmaele
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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Projection was 217k I think. Given that more people are re-entering the workforce I expect unemployment to remain unchanged, at best.
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ZigmundZag
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Definitely better than the days of shedding jobs and a few Outposters have said "They're hiring where I live!" in the past few months. Still not much hiring in this area, though. Hell, I'm just happy my boss was handed his first no-cuts budget in about 5 years.
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Ptilk
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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I've had more contacts from former clients in the past 2 months than in the prior 4 years combined.
Either they are getting desperate, or all the people I pissed off have finally retired or died. 
Pretty sure that companies are seeing that stagnation and hording cash are not ways to increase market share in a growing (albeit very slowly) economy.
It's a bit premature, we still have the expected stock drop at the end of May coming up. Which will convince most of the chicken littles that the sky is falling again and go right back to sitting on the sidelines.....while new companies start eating them for lunch.
Foreign companies are going to start building in the US at a record pace soon. While we are bitching about our "poor" economy, they are looking at the US and salivating.
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B_Shinkicker
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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Are these jobs that pay an income sufficient to purchase a median priced house in the area that they work?
They tend to leave that kind of information out when talking about job numbers.
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
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Ptilk is paying attention this week it seems.
"Sell in May and go away" is indeed coming up soon. Some of the gyrations in the market in March and April are just to get to that point, hit their baseline fund targets, and get out.
It's much like the job market. Once we see 3 months straight of sub-300k new jobless claims we'll know we are growing and keeping up with the demand of workers for reasonable employment. (That still hasn't happened).
Once we get past May we'll know more where the stock and bond markets actually sit.
For the politicos: June-Sept will be what the election hinges on.
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Ashmaele
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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B_Shinkicker posted:
Are these jobs that pay an income sufficient to purchase a median priced house in the area that they work?
They tend to leave that kind of information out when talking about job numbers.
It really depends on the housing market. Overall, though, the real reason the economy hasn't snapped back to pre-2007 levels is precisely because the housing crisis in many areas is still ongoing and prices have not yet hit bottom.
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-Espiritu-
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209k on an expected 206k. Closest number to consensus in years. Third month in a row with less jobs than the prior month.
At this current rate, we will have 5% unemployement in 10 years (with 0% population growth). Of course our debt will be north of $30 Trillion (at least 150% of GDP).
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Ashmaele
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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Well yeah, if we pass budgets proposed by idiots from Wisconsin that once again cut taxes on the wealthy we probably would be focked budget-wise.
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Lyken-P
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GrilledCheez posted:
There are very positive things going on in the job market where I am. in fact I have a phone interview today where the HR folks actively hunted me down and called me. I hadn't even updated a resume for two years.
I still think we have a lot of downs before we hit solid ups, but I'd love to be wrong.
Yup, I've had a few places contact me also, from places I gave my resume to two years ago.
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-Espiritu-
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How is going from 19% to 25% a tax cut for the rich?
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Ashmaele
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Lyken-P posted:
GrilledCheez posted:
There are very positive things going on in the job market where I am. in fact I have a phone interview today where the HR folks actively hunted me down and called me. I hadn't even updated a resume for two years.
I still think we have a lot of downs before we hit solid ups, but I'd love to be wrong.
Yup, I've had a few places contact me also, from places I gave my resume to two years ago.
It's pretty amazing that they kept your resume on file that long, I have never worked anywhere that did that. I clean ours out every six months.
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theredkay1
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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-Espiritu- posted:
209k on an expected 206k. Closest number to consensus in years. Third month in a row with less jobs than the prior month.
Thats not right.
Last month ADP reported 173K gain in January, 216K gain in February.
All 3 months are below December....but it seems more likely that December numbers were off and reported higher than what they were in reality.
Last month the 6 month average job gain was +171K. March is higher than that. And the new 6 month average is +186K.
ADP numbers dont track very well with the government numbers.....but its clear that both are steadily getting better.
If we are looking for takeoff speed and a sign that rapid expansion is coming....this was a bad report. If we just want to be sure that the good news over the winter wasnt an anomaly and slow growth is actually here, this is a good report.
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Yukishiro1
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ADP reporting 209k private sector jobs added in March
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200k/month isn't enough for real significant growth. It's better than losing jobs, though.
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-Espiritu-
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the adjustment for February was 230k. Which means March was less than February. Looking for the January adjustment, but you may be right that it was only the second straight month of less new jobs than the previous month.
I know that March is below the three month average though which include adjustments.
I disagree that this ADP report shows things getting better. I think it strengthens the belief in the new norm. 8% is the new 5% in unemployement, and 200k is the new 400k for new jobs. I expect there to be some 300k prints before the end of this year. It is really unnerving to think this is as good as it gets.
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theredkay1
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Well, that would mean its the first straight month of less new jobs than the previous month.
The adjustments indicate we should probably wait until March is adjusted before making any real conjectures.
These kinds of numbers are very rough, even after 2 months of adjustments. It doesnt make sense that the economy boomed for 1 month in December before slowing down (these numbers are seasonally adjusted).
The numbers do show improvement, you really have to stretch and spin the numbers to erase signs of an improving labor market, but they certainly dont show things are as good as we could hope for.
Congress and the Fed have both pretty much said they are ok with this slow growth....we should demand more.
edit- A few unnamed Fed members expressed worry that labor costs (compensation) jumped a bit faster in recent months. Labor costs are still below where they were in 2008 and some Fed members are worried and use this as rationale against taking additional steps.
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Yukishiro1
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(Normal) people getting paid more is definitely a bad thing when you come to the table from a certain perspective.
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Ashmaele
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theredkay1 posted:
It doesnt make sense that the economy boomed for 1 month in December before slowing down (these numbers are seasonally adjusted).
It does if you don't believe in Santa Claus!
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GrilledCheez
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Keep in mind that I'm pretty awesome. I thought it was assumed, but just in case.
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