__Bonk__
Posts:
53,947
Registered:
Jul 25, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 53,339
User ID: 1,364,654
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
He is ahead in the states obama will win. He is losing in states his party usually wins lol
-----signature-----
I keep my eyes fixed on the sun!
A change in feeling is a change in destiny.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Yukishiro1
Posts:
38,362
Registered:
Sep 20, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 31,453
User ID: 718,633
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
The states republicans normally win will vote for anyone with an (R) after their name unless it's Ron Paul.
Those states don't matter. What matters is who wins the 10-12 states that are somewhat competitive.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
I think indiana will vote republican. I think you guys are in for a surprise.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Desnoxvu
Posts:
15,306
Registered:
Mar 21, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 12,742
User ID: 659,973
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
If Romney or Santorum win the R nomination it will be a repeat of McCain's epic loss.
My guess is that Ron Paul supporters make up 15% of the republican party and they will not vote for either frothy or romnulant. We also have a huge portion of independents and democrats that will not vote for those republican facists either. So Obama has the election in the bag if either of them 2 win. I think that MSNBC and other liberal media knows this and that is why they blackout Ron Paul or deceive people about him.
-----signature-----
Ron Paul 2012
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Ron Paul supporters are stupid, but they will vote the same way with or without ron paul in the race. Many of them will vote for the R some of them will be all angsty and not vote, and some will vote for the D. But they aren't mainstream repubs anyway so it doesn't matter.
The only way RP would have a significant effect on the real election would be if he was on the ticket one way or another. Either as an independent or as the VP choice. outside of that his "block" of voters is no more influential, scary or important than any other special interest group/organization.
The saddest thing about this election to me is the way OWS petered out.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Tych2
Title: Obama Appointed Outpost Czar
Posts:
40,411
Registered:
Mar 1, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 33,378
User ID: 1,032,223
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Desnoxvu posted:
If Romney or Santorum win the R nomination it will be a repeat of McCain's epic loss.
 Do you think if Ron Paul got the nomination he would win the election?? He can't even win his own party.
-----signature-----
We have enough youth. What we need is a fountain of smart.
Drill Anwar!
Kapie
Drevid in Tanks
|
|
Link to this post
|
Desnoxvu
Posts:
15,306
Registered:
Mar 21, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 12,742
User ID: 659,973
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
The general election is a piece of cake for Ron Paul. The hard part is the republican primary. If you look at the stats Ron Paul has the highest amount of independent votes, democrat votes and 18-30 year old votes out of all the republican candidates. The hard part is getting the status quo white hair republicans to support an anti-war candidate.
-----signature-----
Ron Paul 2012
|
|
Link to this post
|
Tych2
Title: Obama Appointed Outpost Czar
Posts:
40,411
Registered:
Mar 1, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 33,378
User ID: 1,032,223
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
I think you are off on your assessment.
-----signature-----
We have enough youth. What we need is a fountain of smart.
Drill Anwar!
Kapie
Drevid in Tanks
|
|
Link to this post
|
Aerlinthian
Posts:
66,222
Registered:
May 7, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 65,491
User ID: 94,919
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
No, he is dead on. The republitards still listen to neocon radio and the MSM.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Tych2
Title: Obama Appointed Outpost Czar
Posts:
40,411
Registered:
Mar 1, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 33,378
User ID: 1,032,223
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
Moderates decide elections. Its moderates that he has to persuade. You are both mistaken.
-----signature-----
We have enough youth. What we need is a fountain of smart.
Drill Anwar!
Kapie
Drevid in Tanks
|
|
Link to this post
|
Desnoxvu
Posts:
15,306
Registered:
Mar 21, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 12,742
User ID: 659,973
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Tych2 posted:
Moderates decide elections. Its moderates that he has to persuade. You are both mistaken.
Moderates are just lazy people who have no real understanding of any issues so they vote for whoever represents the most status quo.
-----signature-----
Ron Paul 2012
|
|
Link to this post
|
Aerlinthian
Posts:
66,222
Registered:
May 7, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 65,491
User ID: 94,919
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
The real moderates are going for Paul. The fake moderates will vote for Obama in almost any event. The Dumbledore's will vote for Romney.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
ZigmundZag
Title: Grammar Nazi
Posts:
25,948
Registered:
Mar 25, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 22,707
User ID: 661,552
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Tych2 posted:
I think you are off of your meds.
Fixed that for you.
-----signature-----
"Take the cheese to sickbay!"
|
|
Link to this post
|
Aerlinthian
Posts:
66,222
Registered:
May 7, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 65,491
User ID: 94,919
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Tych2 posted:
Do you think if Ron Paul got the nomination he would win the election?? He can't even win his own party.
That is because his party are now basically Democrats while the formal Democratic party are now hard left socialists.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Tych2
Title: Obama Appointed Outpost Czar
Posts:
40,411
Registered:
Mar 1, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 33,378
User ID: 1,032,223
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
We'll see what happens. I am pretty sure I'll be correct and you both will still be angry.
-----signature-----
We have enough youth. What we need is a fountain of smart.
Drill Anwar!
Kapie
Drevid in Tanks
|
|
Link to this post
|
Desnoxvu
Posts:
15,306
Registered:
Mar 21, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 12,742
User ID: 659,973
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
|
Either way. If Romney wins then his loss against Obama will be one for the record books.
-----signature-----
Ron Paul 2012
|
|
Link to this post
|
Bobvillas
Posts:
1,099
Registered:
Nov 19, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 1,099
User ID: 1,338,010
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Just do your duty and vote for your Republican overlord Romney.
-----signature-----
"well honestly i didnt learn "jw" on the net i learned it from multiple females that have texted me. but keep on truckin broheim." Thorikos http://fluffytit.mybrute.com
|
|
Link to this post
|
Desnoxvu
Posts:
15,306
Registered:
Mar 21, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 12,742
User ID: 659,973
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Bobvillas posted:
Just do your duty and vote for your Republican overlord Romney.
No Ron Paul supporter will vote for Romney even if it means Obama will win.
-----signature-----
Ron Paul 2012
|
|
Link to this post
|
Bobvillas
Posts:
1,099
Registered:
Nov 19, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 1,099
User ID: 1,338,010
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
That is ok you guys don't vote anyway.
Look at your record so far.
I don't think Romney is trying to take you guys to the dance.
Nor anyone else for that matter.
-----signature-----
"well honestly i didnt learn "jw" on the net i learned it from multiple females that have texted me. but keep on truckin broheim." Thorikos http://fluffytit.mybrute.com
|
|
Link to this post
|
paulg_68
Posts:
30,961
Registered:
Jul 27, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 30,669
User ID: 1,364,918
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
I think the neocon and religious right Republicans are hoping the Tea Party thing is done.
-----signature-----
If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSgiXGELjbc "Everyone has a chance to become rich." - Groucho48 "Most of the human wealth on earth exists between the ears of live human beings." - theredkay1
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
traditional wisdom is often stupid. That is the case here. The reason that "moderates decide elections" is because the base picks the candidates. If the base for some reason doesn't pick the candidate or you are wishfully thinking about overriding the base to pick a candidate moderates want, then moderates vote would be predictable and the disenfranchised base would decide the election.
Of course all that is irrelevant because Paul is a moron that appeals in large percentages neither to the base nor to moderates. So you are as wrong as you could possibly be. coincidentally just like Ron Paul.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Groucho48
Posts:
11,206
Registered:
Oct 22, '03
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 11,136
User ID: 847,611
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
This is from the Great Orange Satan, so, treat it how you will. They took, for every state, the last 5 polls and averaged them and looked at the results. This is what they found...
Let's take the mystery out of it right at the outset—if the election were held today, Barack Obama would, in all probability, be re-elected rather easily over Mitt Romney. The polling average in each state, with no adjustments, would give Barack Obama 347 electoral votes, versus 191 electoral votes for Mitt Romney.
With current polling, Barack Obama's 2008 coalition remains dramatically intact. He would lose Indiana, where the sole poll in the race (the aforementioned Donnelly poll) had Mitt Romney up by four points. I'm also ceding the sole Nebraska electoral vote to Romney, though that's far from a lock. The average of the two polls there (one by PPP in October, and a more recent one by the House of Ras) is a Romney lead of 15 points. But John McCain won here in 14.9%, and Obama narrowly claimed the 2nd district.
Aside from that, Barack Obama holds every other state he claimed in 2008. Some of the margins are pretty tight, however, suggesting that Mitt Romney could conceivably chip away at the Obama majority.
.
.
.
Obama lead of 10+ points (201 electoral votes): Washington DC (+86); Rhode Island (+27.8); Hawaii (+27); Maryland (+25.4); Delaware (+25); Vermont (+25); New York (+21.8); Massachusetts (+19.8); California (+19.2); New Mexico (+14.3); Illinois (+14); New Jersey (+12.4); Oregon (+11.3); Connecticut (+11); Minnesota (+11); Maine (+10.8); Washington (+10.8)
Obama lead of 5-10 points (68 electoral votes): Wisconsin (+9.2); Michigan (+9); Virginia (+7.6); Pennsylvania (+6.6); Colorado (+5)
Obama lead of less than 5 points (78 electoral votes): New Hampshire (+3.8); Ohio (+3.2); Iowa (+2.2); Nevada (+2.0); Florida (+1.4); North Carolina (+0.8)
Romney lead of less than 5 points (32 electoral votes): Arizona (+2.6); Missouri (+3.6); Indiana (+4.0)
Romney lead of 5-10 points (88 electoral votes): Tennessee (+5.2); South Carolina (+6.8); Georgia (+7.8); Kentucky (+8.0); Texas (+8.0); Montana (+8.3); North Dakota (+8.7)
Romney lead of 10+ points (71 electoral votes): South Dakota (+11.0); Mississippi (+12.0); Arkansas (+13.2); West Virginia (+13.3); Nebraska (+15.0); Louisiana (+16.0); Kansas (+17.0); Alaska (+21.5); Alabama (+22.0); Idaho (+25.3); Oklahoma (+31.3); Utah (+32.0); Wyoming (+32.3)
-----signature-----
“Science is like sex: sometimes something useful comes out, but that is not the reason we are doing it.†– Richard Feynman
|
|
Link to this post
|
paulg_68
Posts:
30,961
Registered:
Jul 27, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 30,669
User ID: 1,364,918
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
According to RealClearPolitics Romney polls best against Obama and still loses by 4.5%. Ron Paul does 2nd best losing by 8%.
It's important to note that even though Ron Paul is getting whupped by both Gingrich and Santorum he polls better in the general election.
It's also important to note that Ron Paul is doing this despite the fact that he's never had any support whatsoever from the party. If Ron Paul had won the Republican nomination, the party would have finally thrown their support behind him. He's only 3.5% behind Romney now despite the fact that the Romney has been the party choice since day 1.
I don't think it's out of the question that Ron Paul would do better in the general election than Romney if he could only get past the other Republican candidates.
-----signature-----
If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSgiXGELjbc "Everyone has a chance to become rich." - Groucho48 "Most of the human wealth on earth exists between the ears of live human beings." - theredkay1
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sea_of_inK
Posts:
3,238
Registered:
Oct 18, '04
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 2,898
User ID: 978,446
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
He could run as a third party candidate.
He won't though, because of his son's career. Ron Paul has looked much more self serving in recent years, which I guess makes sense.
-----signature-----
|
|
Link to this post
|
paulg_68
Posts:
30,961
Registered:
Jul 27, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 30,669
User ID: 1,364,918
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Sea_of_inK posted:
Ron Paul has looked much more self serving in recent years
How so?
-----signature-----
If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSgiXGELjbc "Everyone has a chance to become rich." - Groucho48 "Most of the human wealth on earth exists between the ears of live human beings." - theredkay1
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sea_of_inK
Posts:
3,238
Registered:
Oct 18, '04
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 2,898
User ID: 978,446
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
It's been especially bad since his son won in Kentucky. He's not going to piss off the GOP too much because his chapter is ending and Rand's is beginning. It's not about being a revolutionary any more or being elected president. That ship has sailed long ago. Everything he does now is a career move.
Did you see his latest ad?
He's had a several attack ad's like this for Gingrich and Santorum. Never Romney though.
-----signature-----
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sansfear
Posts:
7,232
Registered:
Aug 31, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 7,182
User ID: 1,318,423
|
Subject:
The situation for Romney
|
Groucho48 posted:
Obama lead of 10+ points (201 electoral votes): Washington DC (+86); Rhode Island (+27.8); Hawaii (+27); Maryland (+25.4); Delaware (+25); Vermont (+25); New York (+21.8); Massachusetts (+19.8); California (+19.2); New Mexico (+14.3); Illinois (+14); New Jersey (+12.4); Oregon (+11.3); Connecticut (+11); Minnesota (+11); Maine (+10.8); Washington (+10.8)
This election will be won/lost on voter turnout, and there isn't a lot of excitement on either side.
Obama will not come close to the massive turnout from 2008.
Romney isn't exciting enough either to get a huge turnout. Most of his votes are going to be votes against Obama.
If Santorum were somehow win the nomination, the turnout against him would be huge, though, so that would benefit Obama greatly and would assure a landslide victory for Obama.
I guess this will be the election where ever should care, but noone really does.
We'll see a slight increase in Republican turnout and a large decrease in Democratic turnout and the vote will be decided in the middle as it usually does.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
