suntzukali2
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6 dollar a gallon for gas ?
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Oil is plentiful as new discoveries continue to be made, natural gas exploration and production is up, the dollar has strengthened, it’s an election year, and so gasoline prices are going which direction? Down? Well, no, according to the experts, gasoline prices are rising and could top $6 per gallon by summer.
Each of the above conditions usually results in lower prices at the gas pump. If supply goes up on constant demand, then price should at least remain steady or go down. As new discoveries are made then supply goes up and at constant demand, price should go down. Even as production lags discovery, markets build in the worldwide supply figures. Natural gas production is soaring allowing for cheaper substitution for oil. When the dollar strengthens versus foreign currencies then each dollar buys more quantity of foreign oil and hence prices should go down for the same quantity. Usually election years result in government policies that are neutral for energy prices. So what is going on?
1) Iran has cut off supply to Western Europe as punishment for political stances. This has created increased demand for the remaining world supply from Europe although Iran likely will turn around and sell this supply elsewhere so perhaps this effect is temporary.
2) A possible military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could result in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the path for 20% of the world’s oil supply. This alone could result in $200 a barrel oil or about a doubling from the current prices. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a “strong Likelihood†that military action will happen.
3) If Iran does cut off supply, Venezuela could follow and cut off their supplies to the U.S.
4) There is a shortage for U.S. east coast refinery capacity tied to the closings of several refineries.
5) While the dollar has strengthened versus the Euro, there still is concern that Federal Reserve policies and U.S. deficits will weaken the dollar. Weakness in the dollar feeds upward pressure on commodities like oil that is priced in dollars and thus is at a discount on foreign markets.
6) Storm season is coming again. Every year brings new worries about the potential impact of storms in the Gulf of Mexico on supply operations at sea and refinery operations on land.
7) Supplies from the Alberta oil sands now likely will go to Asia versus the U.S. now that the Keystone XL pipeline project has been stopped.
Last year was the highest priced year ever for gasoline and national averages for a gallon of regular are about $3.50 now. Consensus is that the current situation will result in prices over $4 by spring and any of the other possibilities, especially military action in the Middle East, could easily push gasoline prices to $6. Some people believe that rising gasoline prices are a sign that the economy is strengthening but one sure way to knock the economy back into recession is a $6 or even $4 per gallon gasoline price. And this, in turn, could have an impact on this year’s elections. Stay tuned.
– Steve Odland
http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland/2012/02/21/6-gas/
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notmforce2k
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OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
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notmforce2k posted:
OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
well said could not agree more
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Hyperimiator
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notmforce2k posted:
OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
Bulleffingcrap, we are an exporter now.
...The U.S. exported more oil-based fuels than it imported in the first nine months of this year, making it likely that 2011 will be the first time since 1949 that the nation is a net exporter of such goods, primarily diesel.
That's not all. The U.S. has reversed another decades-long trend. It began producing more crude oil in 2008 than the year before and accelerated that upswing 3% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period in 2010. That production has helped reduce U.S. imports of crude oil by about 10% since 2006...
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1
Hooray for big oil!
Let's lease them more publicly owned oil producing land so they can make huge profits exporting it to China!
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jeune
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Gas will never go that high... people will just stop driving/will make other technologies more viable.
It is pretty sick that we want to continue drilling the resources that we have... continue our dependence on crazies in the middle east instead of moving away from oil.
Oil is not our future and the longer we stay on it the more damage we do to our kids... when you have a cartel with the majority of the resource that is super easy to extract that sets prices and quotas you will always be dependent on someone else.
Lets continue to use all of our oil so that we can temporarily lower our own prices and let our kids figure it out... that is the American way... steal from your kids because we want the easy way out.
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notmforce2k
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Should have added Keystone to my list.
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ferdinand.the.great
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notmforce2k posted:
Should have added Keystone to my list.
Oh, come on. You can't be that dumb, MForce. Keystone would have been primarily used to export fuel to other nations, created limited jobs, and had huge environmental impacts.
I'm sorry, but ANY increased oil exploration is a net LOSS, and that is a fact, climate deniers be damned.
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Crelic_MT
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Don't we get these type of stories every year right before summer? Gas going to hit $10 a gallon by August, we're all gonna die cause we can't afford to drive? 
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notmforce2k
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ferdinand.the.great posted:
Keystone would have been primarily used to export fuel to other nations
I have no problem with that.
ferdinand.the.great posted:
created limited jobs
No problem with this either.
ferdinand.the.great posted:
and had huge environmental impacts.
TBD. Critics have said the same about other pipelines that are doing just fine.
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notmforce2k posted:
OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
Just look at what your idiot President did to try and shore up the Environmental Vote by delaying the Pipleine from the Oil Sands.
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notmforce2k
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That was Keystone, right?
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notmforce2k posted:
That was Keystone, right?
Yes
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Hyperimiator
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I have a problem with us exporting petroleum.
We will need it, it is a national resource, and we let multi-national companies take it for pennies per barrel.
Then again selling the US public down the river is the way of the modern conservative, so anything for money in a rich man's pocket is A OK.
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regulator_cracka
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Go look up publicly listed quarterly "profit" earnings for Mobil/Exxon and you will see why.
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notmforce2k
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And bipartisan campaign contributions. They have EVERYONE in their pocket.
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silvadel2
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All of the government vehicles could be converted to natural gas which would use a local resource and really cut down on the gasoline issue from the demand side.
Thing is though -- if we go bankrupt, it might not be good to have the oil out as a liquid asset -- so long as it is below ground, it is still ours even if we say default on the debt and nobody wants to trade with us.
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levgre
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notmforce2k posted:
OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
I don't think you have a single bit of understanding about the oil market/consumption if you think these factors would make anything but a minor change in our gas prices.
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ferdinand.the.great
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levgre posted:
notmforce2k posted:
OF COURSE there are factors beyond our control and political factors like Iran.... but the decisions that we are responsible for like not drilling in Alaska, the shut down of new projects in the gulf, and the stagnation/closing of refineries here, is absolutely disgusting.
I don't think you have a single bit of understanding about the oil market/consumption if you think these factors would make anything but a minor change in our gas prices.
When a major oil company (can't remember if it was BP or Exxon) announced a new find in the Gulf of several billion barrels, conservatives on this board (and maybe MForce?) used it as "evidence" that peak oil isn't a thing, and that we have quite enough oil to go around. About a minute and a half of research and basic math said that the find was worth about a week of oil to the US -- and that was one of the biggest oil finds of the year.
Fun fact: We've been in peak oil for several years. It's not that there is not more oil around, but that, even if we start drilling in Alaska, we cannot extract oil at higher rates than current consumption, especially with oil usage skyrocketing in places like India and China. The price of oil has been instrumental in nearly every recession since the '70s, including the current one. The recent study which demonstrated that we've been at peak oil for several years already also found that the entire trade deficit of Italy -- a trade deficit causing significant economic distress -- can be attributed to the price of oil.
Aside from developing alternative energy sources, there is literally nothing we can do to stabilize oil and gasoline prices. It's not going to happen.
(Well, not letting fires break out in major refineries might help.)
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Ashmaele
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notmforce2k posted:
ferdinand.the.great posted:
and had huge environmental impacts.
TBD. Critics have said the same about other pipelines that are doing just fine.
Seriously? Are you as passionately uninformed about other issues are you are about this one?
These spills ALL occurred within the last year or so, and this is in no way an exhaustive list:
BP pipeline leak in Alaska - 176,000+ gallons
Keystone (yes, THAT Keystone) pipeline leak in Kansas, 17,000 gallons
Marathon pipeline spill in Michigan, 462,000 gallons
Ruptured pipeline in Texas City, TX - 252,000 gallons
Pipeline failure near Vinton, LA - 63,000 gallons
Enbridge oil pipeline spill in Kalamazoo River. - 1 million plus gallons. As of Oct. 31, 2011, more than 1,139,000 gallons of oil are estimated to have been contained in the contaminated waste streams generated by cleanup work.
But that's not the half of it.
Tar sands oil is far more acidic than conventional WTI petroleum, and it requires heat to keep it thin and flowing and additional pressure to pump through pipe, all of which increases pipe stress and makes a pipe rupture far more likely than conventional petroleum.
New Tar Sands Oil Products Increase Likelihood of Spills
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notmforce2k
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I understand accidents happen, but it is a rare occurance to obliterate a species or make an area uninhabitable (ie permanent damage). People were crying doom at previous pipelines that animals have adapted to without missing a beat (unless you're strictly talking about spills, which I was not. I am talking structures).
I hate seeing spills like anyone else does but energy is a necessity for humans. Period. And the fact of the matter is that it will likely take decades to make any substantial switch to weaker resources like windmills or solar. It is not feasible right now. We need gas and we need oil.
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JD_HOGG
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Sheesh. We're just going to skip $4 and $5 as a given, and go right on up to $6. Let's talk about $5 first when gasoline tops $4 shall we?
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combat_mage_sc
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I there is a god... 
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jeune
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notmforce2k posted:
I understand accidents happen, but it is a rare occurance to obliterate a species or make an area uninhabitable (ie permanent damage). People were crying doom at previous pipelines that animals have adapted to without missing a beat (unless you're strictly talking about spills, which I was not. I am talking structures).
I hate seeing spills like anyone else does but energy is a necessity for humans. Period. And the fact of the matter is that it will likely take decades to make any substantial switch to weaker resources like windmills or solar. It is not feasible right now. We need gas and we need oil.
The oil in Alaska should be considered a strategic National security asset... what if something happens in the ME... what if oil stops flowing?! The U.S. would be pretty screwed... our military cannot do anything without a steady and reliable supply of oil.
The issue to me has very little to do with the environment... I just find it hard to justify extracting our natural resources with absolutely NO planning for the future.
The U.S. is in dire need of a national energy plan that looks well into the future... I think it would be a great idea to drill in Alaska and use that oil during a transitional period... but I will not support drilling because I want lower prices... that is greedy and generational theft.
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notmforce2k
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Most of that (Alaska) isn't tapped into right now, is it? Aren't we several years away from being able to extract, refine, and use it? So events if the ME dried up or some dire fallout happened with our relationships there it isn't like we are in a position to just pick up the slack overnight with our own assets.
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jeune
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notmforce2k posted:
Most of that (Alaska) isn't tapped into right now, is it? Aren't we several years away from being able to extract, refine, and use it? So events if the ME dried up or some dire fallout happened with our relationships there it isn't like we are in a position to just pick up the slack overnight with our own assets.
They already have a pipeline across the whole state... ANWR is Federal land owned by the American people and not Alaska... it is right next to Purdue Bay where the state has been producing oil for decades.
My guess is if Congress opens up ANWR it will be a field day for the oil companies... they would only need a small connecting pipe to the main pipeline/already have all the equipment up there for development/extraction.
It is actually the perfect big pocket of oil/readily available if we ever need it.
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Ashmaele
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notmforce2k posted:
I understand accidents happen, but it is a rare occurance to obliterate a species or make an area uninhabitable (ie permanent damage). People were crying doom at previous pipelines that animals have adapted to without missing a beat (unless you're strictly talking about spills, which I was not. I am talking structures).
I hate seeing spills like anyone else does but energy is a necessity for humans. Period. And the fact of the matter is that it will likely take decades to make any substantial switch to weaker resources like windmills or solar. It is not feasible right now. We need gas and we need oil.
You can /handwave away the environmental factors if you want...most people do not care about them unless/until a spill happens that affects the tomato plants in their back yards, but to pretend that they do not exist is simply factually inaccurate.
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