Rosaria posted:

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There are some wicked, wicked headwinds on the horizon.

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Thugoneous posted:

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Foreclosures are up 8%

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Thugoneous posted:

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So should I raise my rent this year on my tenants?

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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There are some wicked, wicked headwinds on the horizon.

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Are you just going to leave that hanging?

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Sansfear posted:

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I think she's talking about if/when and whether or not the Greek economy officially defaults which would activate all the credit default swaps tied to it.

They keep throwing money at them in an attempt to avoid that happening, but it is inevitably going to do so (and should have been done awhile back so they could restructure). All they are doing now is throwing hundreds of billions of good money after bad.

Then again, I could be wrong!

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Sansfear posted:

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I think she's talking about if/when and whether or not the Greek economy officially defaults which would activate all the credit default swaps tied to it.

They keep throwing money at them in an attempt to avoid that happening, but it is inevitably going to do so (and should have been done awhile back so they could restructure). All they are doing now is throwing hundreds of billions of good money after bad.

Then again, I could be wrong!

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

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Rosaria posted:

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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

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Fu...fuck..kkk fuck you.

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

There's a squillion words already printed about Greece but overall I think its a mistake to just say its a case of throwing good money after bad, because the money being spent on Greece is not going to the Greek people, its being diluted across hundreds of international banks and its 'their' money that is magically being guaranteed, not the welfare of the Greek people. This has nothing to do with people because in the final analysis no one gives a shit about Greece. This is about Greek bond swaps that in effect will have the ECB paying far far more than the initial cost of the bond issuance to begin with. Its going to be voted on before anyone even knows if Greece has complied, or has any intention of complying with, the restructuring provisos or not. No one cares, its the shifting of money that matters. Greece has not even made the debt swap offer, and can, after making the offer, withdraw it at any time!

To answer Sin directly, I do not believe there is an LTRO nor a Fed discount window large enough to support international banks who have dreadful risk exposure not only to Greece, but to Spain, Italy, and Portugal in that order. Greece is just one tiny example or portend of four other disasters with abysmally high employment waiting for their turn whose impact is far greater on the overal EU economy.

I simply do not believe any of this action is sustainable, and its going to impact the US in waves because there are no firewalls in place to protect US interests from the financial drama I believe will take place over the next several months. The Mother of All Credit Events is unfolding before us and its infantile to presume that its all because of those 'fatuous and selfish' Greek people.

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imaloon1 posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Fu...fuck..kkk fuck you.

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LMAO.... I have no idea why you're cussing him but I think it's funny anyway.

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

There's a squillion words already printed about Greece but overall I think its a mistake to just say its a case of throwing good money after bad, because the money being spent on Greece is not going to the Greek people, its being diluted across hundreds of international banks and its 'their' money that is magically being guaranteed, not the welfare of the Greek people. This has nothing to do with people because in the final analysis no one gives a shit about Greece. This is about Greek bond swaps that in effect will have the ECB paying far far more than the initial cost of the bond issuance to begin with. Its going to be voted on before anyone even knows if Greece has complied, or has any intention of complying with, the restructuring provisos or not. No one cares, its the shifting of money that matters. Greece has not even made the debt swap offer, and can, after making the offer, withdraw it at any time!

To answer Sin directly, I do not believe there is an LTRO nor a Fed discount window large enough to support international banks who have dreadful risk exposure not only to Greece, but to Spain, Italy, and Portugal in that order. Greece is just one tiny example or portend of four other disasters with abysmally high employment waiting for their turn whose impact is far greater on the overal EU economy.

I simply do not believe any of this action is sustainable, and its going to impact the US in waves because there are no firewalls in place to protect US interests from the financial drama I believe will take place over the next several months. The Mother of All Credit Events is unfolding before us and its infantile to presume that its all because of those 'fatuous and selfish' Greek people.

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I thought the whole point of the massive amount of CDS was to bet against Greece. In fact the amount of CDS outstanding seem to suggest that the market is less about insurance and more about high stakes gambling.

At this point it is like everyone is just waiting for the implosion to occur and spread. Those who have risk exposure have had plenty of time to address that risk which should help.

The US is exposed to the European crisis but not to the same degree Europe is exposed to our own economic hardships.

/shrug

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Sorry, just got back and am typing this with an eye patch on, so please excuse typos and the occasional burst of Tourette's.

There's a squillion words already printed about Greece but overall I think its a mistake to just say its a case of throwing good money after bad, because the money being spent on Greece is not going to the Greek people, its being diluted across hundreds of international banks and its 'their' money that is magically being guaranteed, not the welfare of the Greek people. This has nothing to do with people because in the final analysis no one gives a shit about Greece. This is about Greek bond swaps that in effect will have the ECB paying far far more than the initial cost of the bond issuance to begin with. Its going to be voted on before anyone even knows if Greece has complied, or has any intention of complying with, the restructuring provisos or not. No one cares, its the shifting of money that matters. Greece has not even made the debt swap offer, and can, after making the offer, withdraw it at any time!

To answer Sin directly, I do not believe there is an LTRO nor a Fed discount window large enough to support international banks who have dreadful risk exposure not only to Greece, but to Spain, Italy, and Portugal in that order. Greece is just one tiny example or portend of four other disasters with abysmally high employment waiting for their turn whose impact is far greater on the overall EU economy.

I simply do not believe any of this action is sustainable, and its going to impact the US in waves because there are no firewalls in place to protect US interests from the financial drama I believe will take place over the next several months. The Mother of All Credit Events is unfolding before us and its infantile to presume that its all because of those 'fatuous and selfish' Greek people.

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I thought the whole point of the massive amount of CDS was to bet against Greece. In fact the amount of CDS outstanding seem to suggest that the market is less about insurance and more about high stakes gambling.

At this point it is like everyone is just waiting for the implosion to occur and spread. Those who have risk exposure have had plenty of time to address that risk which should help.

The US is exposed to the European crisis but not to the same degree Europe is exposed to our own economic hardships.

/shrug

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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:

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imaloon1 posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Fu...fuck..kkk fuck you.

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LMAO.... I have no idea why you're cussing him but I think it's funny anyway.

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LOL she's just adding the Tourette's since I was remiss and only provided the eye patch.

I get Rosie better than I probably should, sometimes.

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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There are some wicked, wicked headwinds on the horizon.

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Are you just going to leave that hanging?

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Groucho48 posted:

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I'll state right up front that the situation in Europe is far too complex and technical fro me to grasp.

I do have a question. How big a haircut are the financial institutions taking?

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Rosaria posted:

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Groucho48 posted:

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I'll state right up front that the situation in Europe is far too complex and technical fro me to grasp.

I do have a question. How big a haircut are the financial institutions taking?

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Is that a joke question?

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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When I say high stakes gambling I mean people investing in CDS that are not doing it to counter their exposure to some underlying bond. Ie, if you own Greek bonds you could buy a CDS which lowers your return while lowering your risk. You can also just bet that Greece will default without holding the underlying debt. In the first case it is basically just insurance, in the second it is gambling.

I think only the banks know how much they have to lose in the various scenarios but as I already pointed out they won’t be caught off guard and will have made moves to protect themselves months ago. Those moves can end up killing other companies though. Happened to AIG.

China will continue to move slowly towards reducing their monetary manipulation IMO but politics in both countries will prevent major changes from happening until after the Presidential election.

There are always concerns but at least the US is starting to get back on its feet. It can get knocked back down but I think the world economy is finally starting to realize just how stupid imbalanced capital flows are.

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Groucho48 posted:

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Rosaria posted:

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Groucho48 posted:

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I'll state right up front that the situation in Europe is far too complex and technical fro me to grasp.

I do have a question. How big a haircut are the financial institutions taking?

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Is that a joke question?

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No. Everyone is calling for austerity for UK, for Ireland, for Spain, for Greece, so that the banks can be paid back. S, the natural question is...do the financial institutions who made the stupid loans suffer any consequences?

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Rosaria posted:

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Its all gambling Sin because Greece has the option of denying or stopping the process once its begun yet significant amounts of money have already changed hands. It can do it one month, two months [I dont think this is going to last that long anyway], whatever. Do you think if there is another AIG scenario that there will be further public funds offered to assauge the loss? I absolutely agree that the US has made gains. I don't believe that the world has learned or realized any such thing about imbalanced capital flows because I don't see any evidence of that.

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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:

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@Groucho I haven't paid attention the last 3 weeks but the last deal I heard rejected was: private institutions take a 70% haircut, or, stretch out their loans another 30-ish years with a 30-ish percent haircut.

Rosie may have more specifics. I took my eye off the ball there recently. Got tired of waiting to hear the rumor of the day. They won't arrive at anything real until end of Feb, earliest. Deadlines are around mid-March.

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Sin_of_Onin posted:

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There will be a lot of pain but I think the US will continue to plod along.

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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:

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@Groucho I haven't paid attention the last 3 weeks but the last deal I heard rejected was: private institutions take a 70% haircut, or, stretch out their loans another 30-ish years with a 30-ish percent haircut.

Rosie may have more specifics. I took my eye off the ball there recently. Got tired of waiting to hear the rumor of the day. They won't arrive at anything real until end of Feb, earliest. Deadlines are around mid-March.

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