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Go go modern economic theories, Barack Obama, Federal Reserve and central economic planning! Consumer demand is up, and companies seem to be hiring again.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204616504577170580078182536.html
Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since 2008
WASHINGTON--The number of people seeking new unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell last week to the lowest level since April 2008, a signal that the labor market is continuing the improvement than began late last year.
Initial jobless claims fell by 50,000 to a seasonally adjusted 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the Labor Department said Thursday. The decline was the largest in a single week since Sept. 24, 2005.
A Labor Department official, however, said "volatility is fairly common this time of year," and noted that several states had their data estimated due to the Martin Luther King holiday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would fall by 19,000 to 380,000.
The four-week moving average of new jobless claims, a closely watched number because it smoothes out volatile weekly figures, decreased last week by 3,500 to 379,000.
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winga
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k
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TheUnholyGhost
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Less people are receiving unemployment benefits because their benefits ran out...
Drop in jobless claims != Drop in unemployment
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TheUnholyGhost posted:
Less people are receiving unemployment benefits because their benefits ran out...
Drop in jobless claims != Drop in unemployment
Brilliant deduction by TUG! I have to hand it to you, you really handed me my ass on this one.
Except for one little thing... these are NEW (i.e. first time) unemployment claims. This has nothing to do with the unemployment rate directly, only by comparing the number of jobs added and the number of jobs lost (which is what we are talking about here) can we get an idea about the net change in the overall employment. Right now, new jobs keep getting added, and fewer and fewer jobs are being lost, which means overall unemployment is going down.
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I fully expect the gubmint to report lower jobless claims this year until the elections are over. Considering how unreliable these numbers have been in the past, wouldnt take em much to fudge em in their favor and go "OOPS!" later.
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Unarmed-Yarr posted:
I fully expect the gubmint to report lower jobless claims this year until the elections are over. Considering how unreliable these numbers have been in the past, wouldnt take em much to fudge em in their favor and go "OOPS!" later.
Yep, and also the six straight months of job growth, all faked. You know what else? Tower 7 was a zionist conspiracy.
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just means that many more people used up the benefits they had so they don't get counted any more. so your point is?
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NEW unemployment jobless claims are down. And it certainly can point to an improvement in the labor market.
Sadly, no matter how Rando wants to spin it, it is only part of the picture.
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Crafty_ac2 posted:
just means that many more people used up the benefits they had so they don't get counted any more. so your point is?
You might want to look up the word "new."
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HeartView
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-Rando- posted:
Crafty_ac2 posted:
just means that many more people used up the benefits they had so they don't get counted any more. so your point is?
You might want to look up the word "new."
All new means in this context is that someone was not receiving benefits but is now receiving benefits, regardless of their current or previous employment status. These numbers do not mean anything by themselves.
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HeartView posted:
All new means in this context is that someone was not receiving benefits but is now receiving benefits, regardless of their current or previous employment status. These numbers do not mean anything by themselves.
No, these numbers clearly mean that Obama's policies are working, and that the economy W. drove into the ditch is finally getting fixed since we put an adult in the White House. There's no way any rational person could see things differently.
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even if i didnt have a job, why would i care about this information? Why should anyone other than those who analyze the information (economists) care about this information?
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aon_mixed posted:
even if i didnt have a job, why would i care about this information? Why should anyone other than those who analyze the information (economists) care about this information?
So they can prove that something happened somewhere, proving everything everywhere! Don't you follow this isht?
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-Rando- posted:
HeartView posted:
All new means in this context is that someone was not receiving benefits but is now receiving benefits, regardless of their current or previous employment status. These numbers do not mean anything by themselves.
No, these numbers clearly mean that Obama's policies are working, and that the economy W. drove into the ditch is finally getting fixed since we put an adult in the White House. There's no way any rational person could see things differently.
Considering how many factors come into play to form our complex economy, any RATIONAL person wouldn't attempt to categorize what is going on as "clear" in any sense of the word.
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HeartView posted:
Considering how many factors come into play to form our complex economy, any RATIONAL person wouldn't attempt to categorize what is going on as "clear" in any sense of the word.
Bam.
This needs to go in every thread B_T has ever posted. Plus all the poli-poll result threads.
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HeartView posted:
Considering how many factors come into play to form our complex economy, any RATIONAL person wouldn't attempt to categorize what is going on as "clear" in any sense of the word.
Look, don't you get it? Every single week these numbers come out is a referendum on the President's economic policies... unless, of course, the numbers are bad, in which case they represent the natural ebb and flow of complex forces acting within a dynamical system. But, if the numbers line up with what you want, then you get to interpret them exactly how you want. Don't they teach you kids anything at school these days?
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Reason #1 why Rando is better than BT.
1. Rando is only (and obviously) pretending to be serious.
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You're the one interpreting these useless numbers, not me. I've never used them for or against Obama or any other president.
THEY ARE MEANINGLESS BY THEMSELVES. All numbers are.
Jobless numbers are a political stunt, not an economic metric.
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HeartView posted:
Jobless numbers are a political stunt, not an economic metric.
Source?
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-Rando- posted:
HeartView posted:
Jobless numbers are a political stunt, not an economic metric.
Source?
How about your conclusion to the numbers posted in the article you linked to? Obama's policies must be working because the numbers are improving.
POLITICAL STUNT.
Now if you were to report the numbers next to the numbers for people currently unemployed and intelligible for unemployment compensation, the numbers for the people choosing to go back to school since their unemployment ran out, plus the numbers for people that that have returned to the workforce with significantly less pay than they were making before, etc., etc., etc.
The economy is a pretty damn complicated thing. Employment is just one factor in it and reporting one small number while claiming some overall trend in the big picture is just plain silly.
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-Rando- posted:
TheUnholyGhost posted:
Less people are receiving unemployment benefits because their benefits ran out...
Drop in jobless claims != Drop in unemployment
Brilliant deduction by TUG! I have to hand it to you, you really handed me my ass on this one.
Except for one little thing... these are NEW (i.e. first time) unemployment claims. This has nothing to do with the unemployment rate directly, only by comparing the number of jobs added and the number of jobs lost (which is what we are talking about here) can we get an idea about the net change in the overall employment. Right now, new jobs keep getting added, and fewer and fewer jobs are being lost, which means overall unemployment is going down.
let me guess, TUG exits thread never to be seen again?
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Anebriated
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-Rando- posted:
HeartView posted:
Considering how many factors come into play to form our complex economy, any RATIONAL person wouldn't attempt to categorize what is going on as "clear" in any sense of the word.
Look, don't you get it? Every single week these numbers come out is a referendum on the President's economic policies... unless, of course, the numbers are bad, in which case they represent the natural ebb and flow of complex forces acting within a dynamical system. But, if the numbers line up with what you want, then you get to interpret them exactly how you want. Don't they teach you kids anything at school these days?
they don't teach dynamic systems in school. maybe i got 5 minutes of it. everyone is still fitting lines. the closest i got in math was a series that diverged i guess?
i was reading the book chaos by gleick yesterday, i read a hundred pages of it instead of looking for a job. everything is coming together now.
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HeartView posted:
The economy is a pretty damn complicated thing.
Apparently too complicated for you to understand. As I've proven in this thread, and elsewhere, however, the economic signs all point to success for the current administration, Keynesian economic policies, and central economic planning.
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-Rando- posted:
HeartView posted:
The economy is a pretty damn complicated thing.
Apparently too complicated for you to understand. As I've proven in this thread, and elsewhere, however, the economic signs all point to success for the current administration, Keynesian economic policies, and central economic planning.
Insults will get you nowhere, so feel free to waste your time.
You've proven nothing in this thread to anyone other than yourself. That doesn't make you a genius.
As for your other threads, I don't follow them or you, nor do I care to.
I also believe we are on an upswing from an economic standpoint. But I think it has far more to do with the ingenuity of American business than it does with the policies of a president. Most business in America succeeds in spite of our government, not because of it.
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HeartView posted:
But I think it has far more to do with the ingenuity of American business than it does with the policies of a president. Most business in America succeeds in spite of our government, not because of it.
Source?
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I don't need a source since I'm stating an opinion.
Where the hell did you go to school?
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The real unemployment rate is down from 24% to 23%. Yay!
No seriously, it appears to be going in a good direction, albeit SLOWLY.
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HeartView posted:
I don't need a source since I'm stating an opinion.
Where the hell did you go to school?
Well then you should have started your statement with something like: "I think".
Oh wait.......... 
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Aerlinthian posted:
The real unemployment rate is down from 24% to 23%. Yay!
No seriously, it appears to be going in a good direction, albeit SLOWLY.
LOL, shadowstats.
Seriously though, they have a graph with 3 indexes of unemployment labeled, official, broadest, and lol, why not include children and retirees just for the hell of it!
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That is alright, laugh, scoff, deny or whatever. John Williams has more than made his case and has received a lot of professional attention because of it.
BTW, you could have not done the knee jerk defensive stuff and instead pointed out where the sharp uptick in employment started. 
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-Rando- posted:
Aerlinthian posted:
The real unemployment rate is down from 24% to 23%. Yay!
No seriously, it appears to be going in a good direction, albeit SLOWLY.
LOL, shadowstats.
Seriously though, they have a graph with 3 indexes of unemployment labeled, official, broadest, and lol, why not include children and retirees just for the hell of it!
since they don't define their SGS alternate measure i am just going to assume it's the 3*(official) +1% per year of democratic presidency -1% per year of republican pesidency.
as you can see my equation fits their curve perfectly.~
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bs my company just instituted a hiring and pay freeze, due to increased food costs and lower than expected sales.
and if you think 352,000 people loosing their jobs every week is considered normal than you are part of the problem.
these are just the people that are filing, those who get fired for a reason, often dont file.
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lol got a job offer today. finally.
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Where?
Doing what?
How much?
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yea!!
and yes, details please!
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Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
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-Foxy-
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paid training is always nice too!
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Onslaught.
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I wonder if I could talk them in to paying for my HAZWOPER too... ;x
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Onslaught. posted:
Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
I have seen first hand what fracking does to the environment and how these companies care about the locals. Witnessed it in PA to here in Oklahoma.
Grats on the job just hope you dont have a conscience.
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Onslaught.
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Sith_Mauler posted:
Onslaught. posted:
Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
I have seen first hand what fracking does to the environment and how these companies care about the locals. Witnessed it in PA to here in Oklahoma.
Grats on the job just hope you dont have a conscience.
I'm one of the guys that supposed to making it less harmful on the environment and help remediate the damage already done.
Well... after I spend a year analyzing the mud and rock coming out of a drill hole. heh
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Arc_DT
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-Rando- posted:
Go go modern economic theories, Barack Obama, Federal Reserve and central economic planning! Consumer demand is up, and companies seem to be hiring again.
B-b-b-b-ut Ron Paul predicted we'd all die if we switched from 30+ years of Friedman back to Keynes!!! Won't someone PLEASE think of the children!!!
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Sith_Mauler
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Onslaught. posted:
Sith_Mauler posted:
Onslaught. posted:
Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
I have seen first hand what fracking does to the environment and how these companies care about the locals. Witnessed it in PA to here in Oklahoma.
Grats on the job just hope you dont have a conscience.
I'm one of the guys that supposed to making it less harmful on the environment and help remediate the damage already done.
Well... after I spend a year analyzing the mud and rock coming out of a drill hole. heh
I hope your right.
there is a documentary called gasland its about fracking.
ignore the spin and glean the facts.
because if you really want to be one of the good guys you need to know the history of your industry.
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Onslaught.
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Phone interview is at 5PM Eastern.
He said it would take an hour. What the deuce.
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Onslaught.
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Sith_Mauler posted:
Onslaught. posted:
Sith_Mauler posted:
[quote=Onslaught.]Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
I have seen first hand what fracking does to the environment and how these companies care about the locals. Witnessed it in PA to here in Oklahoma.
Grats on the job just hope you dont have a conscience.
I'm one of the guys that supposed to making it less harmful on the environment and help remediate the damage already done.
Well... after I spend a year analyzing the mud and rock coming out of a drill hole. heh
I hope your right.
there is a documentary called gasland its about fracking.
ignore the spin and glean the facts.
because if you really want to be one of the good guys you need to know the history of your industry.[/quote]
lol...
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-Foxy-
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sounds like it will be pretty thorough.
you will do fine 
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Sith_Mauler
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Onslaught. posted:
lol...
you laugh but the only reason fracking is able to operate is because of Dick Cheney and the Halliburton loophole.
it is the only industry that is exempt from epa groundwater regulations.
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Onslaught.
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Sith_Mauler posted:
Onslaught. posted:
lol...
you laugh but the only reason fracking is able to operate is because of Dick Cheney and the Halliburton loophole.
it is the only industry that is exempt from epa groundwater regulations.
There are several regulations being put in place for fracking at the moment.
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Sith_Mauler posted:
if you think 352,000 people loosing their jobs every week is considered normal than you are part of the problem.
Actually, it is pretty normal.
Source: http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp
If you look back to say, 1990 all the way up through 2012, 300k or so jobless claims a week is pretty standard. In fact, with the size of our economy, anything less than 450k jobs lost per week generally means the unemployment rate is going DOWN (due to the offset of people being hired). The problem is in late 2008-2009 when we were losing 600k+ jobs per week. That's when unemployment starts to spike.
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TheUnholyGhost posted:
Less people are receiving unemployment benefits because their benefits ran out...
Drop in jobless claims != Drop in unemployment
rofl. i knew someone would post something this dumb. they always do when new jobless claims drop.
im just surprised how quickly.. practically the first response. the derp is strong.
the major insight is the trend not the absolute numbers themselves. having new jobless claims drop is a good sign. only people who bitch about how it's all a lie and the economy is the worst ever is the unemployed losers who siphon tax money off my check or republicans.
STFU AND GBTW.
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Onslaught.
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They want me on an airplane to start training on the 30th.
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Ah-Schoo
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Congrats and good luck Onslaught!
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Welcome to ACF, where debate goes to die.
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Onslaught.
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Thanks.
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Kordirn
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Guess thats undeniable proof that the recession is over.
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Onslaught.
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"You'll be the lowest paid guy at the site by at least a hundred thousand dollars, but this is a where you start to get to that level of job"
lol...
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Onslaught.
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Kordirn posted:
Guess thats undeniable proof that the recession is over.
If an anecdote is all the evidence you need, I just pwnd.
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dont forget us when you become rich and famous
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Anebriated posted:
-Rando- posted:
TheUnholyGhost posted:
Less people are receiving unemployment benefits because their benefits ran out...
Drop in jobless claims != Drop in unemployment
Brilliant deduction by TUG! I have to hand it to you, you really handed me my ass on this one.
Except for one little thing... these are NEW (i.e. first time) unemployment claims. This has nothing to do with the unemployment rate directly, only by comparing the number of jobs added and the number of jobs lost (which is what we are talking about here) can we get an idea about the net change in the overall employment. Right now, new jobs keep getting added, and fewer and fewer jobs are being lost, which means overall unemployment is going down.
let me guess, TUG exits thread never to be seen again?
Usually, although now that I have responded it might have sounded an alarm at his house or something. I'd put it at 50/50.
Aerlinthian posted:
That is alright, laugh, scoff, deny or whatever. John Williams has more than made his case and has received a lot of professional attention because of it.
BTW, you could have not done the knee jerk defensive stuff and instead pointed out where the sharp uptick in employment started.
Ok, shadowstats (lol) versus every other measure cited and used exactly for studying these kinds of things.
Also, you claim that people have "more than made their case" about 9/11 being an inside job when every. single. thing they have said has been thoroughly debunked. You have lost all forms of credibility when it comes to cases being made.
So having established that, again, shadowstats lol. Charging people $175.00 per year for his *expert* analysis because he is the only one who has cracked the big, evil Government's codes, right?
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Brother_Tempus
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215,000 unemployed Americans fell off the rolls and so are not counted on the U3 or U6, despite the fact that they are STILL UNEMPLOYED
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Brother_Tempus posted:
215,000 unemployed Americans fell off the rolls and so are not counted on the U3 or U6, despite the fact that they are STILL UNEMPLOYED
OMG YOU PROVED EVERYTHING!
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Rhodoman
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In other news, we have ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia.
Rho
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Brother_Tempus posted:
215,000 unemployed Americans fell off the rolls and so are not counted on the U3 or U6, despite the fact that they are STILL UNEMPLOYED
You had no problems citing the same sources for sooooo many months before.
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Onslaught.
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Nope. I got a job. The recession really is over.
It was a good run, everybody.
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ty for ending it. you are a true hero to the ppl of acf!
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Onslaught. posted:
Sith_Mauler posted:
Onslaught. posted:
Horizon well logging.
Sounds like it will be in PA, NY or Northern OH OR "somewhere in texas" working on the fracking and drilling operations in the Marcellus oil shale fields.
Pays up to 80k a year for 6months on 6months off. All travel and relocation expenses paid, all food expenses paid while on the job.
First 4 months are paid training and certification in a couple of related programs.
After the first year, they whore you out if you're interested in going to a staff, environmental or oil exploration position.
Think I might take this one.
I have seen first hand what fracking does to the environment and how these companies care about the locals. Witnessed it in PA to here in Oklahoma.
Grats on the job just hope you dont have a conscience.
I'm one of the guys that supposed to making it less harmful on the environment and help remediate the damage already done.
Well... after I spend a year analyzing the mud and rock coming out of a drill hole. heh
I've been working in the Bakken for the last 3 months. 80k isn't much out here since there's such a demand for people. Burger flippers are making $15 in some places. I know a guy with a mechanical engineering degree, he and his wife's daily gross income is around $3000. People are cashing in right now. It'll last until they figure out they're poisoning the water table. Not sure how much the locals care since alot of them have literally turned into millionares over night.
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