Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
...but of course, that drop is because the prior week was adjusted UP to 402,000 (!)
3-week rolling average of initial jobless claims is 374,000.
All the analysts I'm watching are saying it is good news, but the seasonal adjustments and retroactive adjustments like the one from last week are rendering it "less than useful" in figuring out what is going on.
Continuing claims are down to 3.432 million as unemployment benefits run out for many.
U6 -- the more relevant measure of unemployed and underemployed -- has now been reported at 15.2% for December 2011, down from 15.6% in November. That's good news, but as discussed, may be seasonal.
tl;dr : Numbers are getting adjusted wildly due to seasonality and the holiday season. As discussed before, when late Feb 2012 rolls around we'll see where things really stand.
Consumer Price Index up 1/10th of a percent (meh).
Housing starts are DOWN 4.1% in december, vs UP 9.1% in november (bad).
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Brother_Tempus
Title: Patriot
Posts:
48,624
Registered:
Jan 9, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 48,310
User ID: 61,868
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
215,000 unemployed Americans fell off the rolls and so are not counted on the U3 or U6, despite the fact that they are STILL UNEMPLOYED
-----signature-----
You win ACF, dude - Osmenthe
BT is usually right - Onslaught
i think we need more BT on page 1 - FighterUSAF
Yep, BT is right - Aerlinthian
Got guns & ammo? Food? Precious metals?
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Yeah, for once I'm acknowledging your point (clear... succinct... up front... valid). I'm looking at that too, B_T.
I don't hear anyone talking about that or how that 'magic' works. Unless it has to do with the death rate / retirement rate.
That's probably part of the problem. I think once you hit a certain age you fall off of U6. And we have a LOT of aging boomers swelling the ranks of 'not working but probably need to be' since they lost an assload of retirement money in the recent crash.
I think saw a chart somewhere (not BLS) of what % of the TOTAL population is actually working, effectively supporting the rest of the country (children, elderly, infirm, etc). And that number was scary. I posted it here, once. I may add that to the mix in future if I can find it again.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
BLS Definition - "Labor Force"
Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces. The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.
Lots of room for finagling, with that bolded part. I've seen analysts the last few months start commenting that these numbers... even U6... don't seem as useful as they used to be. A working theory is that we have millions of underfunded Boomers "retiring" who should actually be working. That artificially reduces the current U6, and hides an unfunded liability of picking them up off the street (literally) 10 years down the road when they are out of money and there's no way they can get a job in their 70's.
edit -- I've also seen reports the last month about how as troops return from Iraq, that will swell the unemployment ranks as well.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Brother_Tempus posted:
215,000 unemployed Americans fell off the rolls and so are not counted on the U3 or U6, despite the fact that they are STILL UNEMPLOYED
The number of people on unemployment insurance fell by 215,000.
The unemployment statistics, U3 and U6 included, do not use unemployment insurance stats when calculating the unemployment rate. All of the employment/unemployment data is compiled using surveys of either households or businesses.
The surveys certainly have their problems, but this complaint really isnt valid.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Why is it not valid?
215,000 who are required to be looking for jobs in order to receive benefits as recently as this last month (therefore, still in the market) don't just vaporize. If the surveys are working, that should be reflected as a rise in U6. Or at LEAST a level number. Not a drop.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
They still should be included in U6.
Total persons on unemployment insurance fell by 215,000. I assume thats what he was referring to.
Total persons on unemployment insurance is not used to calculate unemployment rates by the government for the reasons you give. Two seperate statistics.
________
If you are looking for maybe a turning point....seasonally adjusted hourly wages and the SA average workweek both jumped in December. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Net: The surveys driving U6 are crap.
The numbers aren't that tough. Doing this from memory but:
We are running about neutral on initial jobless claims vs attrition turnover, so we're not growing there. Net-neutral there on churn.
At best, we created 200,000 jobs last month in nonfarm payrolls (and that's dubious).
We had 215,000 who by definition fell off the unemployment rolls (therefore by definition are looking for work or underemployed as recently as 2-4 weeks ago), U6 should be about flat.
With 200k vs -215k... At BEST, U6 should be about neutral. That doesn't even factor in underemployed/deferred-employment retirees, yet.
U6 shouldn't be dropping. But it is.
Even the U6 survey system -- considered the more reliable of these -- is probably borked since it isn't catching that.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
I dont think you know if those 215k that fell off the insurance rolls did so because they found a job or b/c they ran out of benefits.
You are comparing different periods; +200k is December, -215k is one week in January.
You are using 3 different measurements, each with a margin of error and trying to jam them together. You are trying to do too much with limited data that measured slightly different things. Using longer time frames would also improve the accuracy of what you are tying to do.
Even great surveys will have a margin of error thats going to cause it to bounce around alot from month to month. Dont get too caught up in the month to month numbers.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
theredkay1 posted:
I dont think you know if those 215k that fell off the insurance rolls did so because they found a job or b/c they ran out of benefits.
Read again. The jobless claim and new non-farm payroll numbers I just cited SAY they didn't find a job.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
And yup, my memory is correct. Even the (dubious) BLS numbers say payrolls rose only 200,000 in December.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
"Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December"
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
B_Shinkicker
Posts:
23,050
Registered:
Feb 24, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,740
User ID: 649,600
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Unemployment numbers are hilariously gamed. Here is a bit deeper analysis of the numbers and the real situation...
http://tinyurl.com/7qf7r99
-----signature-----
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted
to a profoundly sick society. - Jiddu Krishnamurti
|
|
Link to this post
|
imaloon1
Posts:
25,153
Registered:
Sep 15, '03
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,758
User ID: 838,293
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Just more cracks in the foundation is all.
Nothing a little stimulus can't fix.
-----signature-----
The time draws nearer to your fate
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
theredkay1 posted:
I dont think you know if those 215k that fell off the insurance rolls did so because they found a job or b/c they ran out of benefits.
Read again. The jobless claim and new non-farm payroll numbers I just cited SAY they didn't find a job.
Read what? Are you referring to your posts? Kind of a 'the proof is that I say so?' Not real good evidence.
Dept of Labor: The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 7, was 3,432,000, a decrease of 215,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,647,000.
Its real hard to imagine how this statistic works if they are only counting unemployed people who will eventually fall off the rolls without finding a job.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20120064.htm
Maybe there is other information you are talking about.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Aerlinthian
Posts:
66,222
Registered:
May 7, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 65,491
User ID: 94,919
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Interesting claim being made here. Only three and a half minutes to get the idea of the claim. On one hand I would expect that this is old news but that it has been ratcheted up and intensified.
http://youtu.be/IytPruK_oNM
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sin_of_Onin
Posts:
35,113
Registered:
Jun 29, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,763
User ID: 1,062,657
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
There are also indications that income may be flat due to various issues impacting the income. For example people taking capital gains last year more than this year due to fear over tax changes, a decrease in bonus payments, and relatively flat wages for those that are working.
IMO the recovery seems to be on but once again it is a shaky and slow recovery.
-----signature-----
"Okay... I'm with you fellas" --Delmar
F is for Fake-believe
"We apologise for the inconvenience" --God
"What Jesus fails to appreciate is that it's the meek who are the problem"--Reg
Run, Forrest! Run!
|
|
Link to this post
|
Brother_Tempus
Title: Patriot
Posts:
48,624
Registered:
Jan 9, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 48,310
User ID: 61,868
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Sin_of_Onin posted:
There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
No there's not
-----signature-----
You win ACF, dude - Osmenthe
BT is usually right - Onslaught
i think we need more BT on page 1 - FighterUSAF
Yep, BT is right - Aerlinthian
Got guns & ammo? Food? Precious metals?
|
|
Link to this post
|
Kjarhall
Title: The Pungent One
Posts:
29,212
Registered:
Mar 1, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,233
User ID: 652,381
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Brother_Tempus posted:
Sin_of_Onin posted:
There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
No there's not
Roubini disagrees with your dumb ass. Guess who has more cred?
-----signature-----
You're a crazy moron*
*http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/115147923/r115151508/
hah! true story tho i'm a woman an i even love boobs..how can you not??- HallowEve
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sin_of_Onin
Posts:
35,113
Registered:
Jun 29, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,763
User ID: 1,062,657
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Brother_Tempus posted:
Sin_of_Onin posted:
There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
No there's not
Sales tax recipts come in on a daily basis and they are up even with seasonal adjustment.
Withholding also comes in on a daily basis and is up.
It is very early in the trend of course but the trend is in the right direction.
-----signature-----
"Okay... I'm with you fellas" --Delmar
F is for Fake-believe
"We apologise for the inconvenience" --God
"What Jesus fails to appreciate is that it's the meek who are the problem"--Reg
Run, Forrest! Run!
|
|
Link to this post
|
Akza
Posts:
10,121
Registered:
Sep 8, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 9,783
User ID: 713,614
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Kjarhall posted:
Brother_Tempus posted:
Sin_of_Onin posted:
There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
No there's not
Roubini disagrees with your dumb ass. Guess who has more cred?
rofl @ using roubini.
talk about someone who wants the world to go to hell in a handbasket. anytime there is positive news, there is some big conspiracy faking all the numbers. anytime there is negative news, all you read is "I TOLD YOU SO".
i had some hard times back in 2008-2009 finding a job since i graduated at that time, but it's been easy as hell to find work since. i just got another company emailing me yesterday if i need a job. already got a nice job though.
-----signature-----
·»Teydis ¤ Igraine«· ·»»·â€œ ¤Herra¤ “·««· http://www.backloggery.com/teylix
|
|
Link to this post
|
B_Shinkicker
Posts:
23,050
Registered:
Feb 24, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,740
User ID: 649,600
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
It's easy to trend your consumption up when you aren't paying your mortgage.
-----signature-----
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted
to a profoundly sick society. - Jiddu Krishnamurti
|
|
Link to this post
|
AzureTyger
Title: Awesome
Posts:
29,693
Registered:
Apr 1, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,594
User ID: 663,926
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
 @ the scrambling excuses of the tards who hitched their wagons to predictions of the collapse of western currency systems and economies.
-----signature-----
Using the mirror of ridicule to force conservatives to
confront their own stupidity.
|
|
Link to this post
|
B_Shinkicker
Posts:
23,050
Registered:
Feb 24, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,740
User ID: 649,600
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Any prediction of the US Dollar's collapse while the Dollar is the world reserve currency is silly.
-----signature-----
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted
to a profoundly sick society. - Jiddu Krishnamurti
|
|
Link to this post
|
Friarspam
Posts:
12,363
Registered:
Jan 23, '07
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 10,619
User ID: 1,200,702
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
B_Shinkicker posted:
Any prediction of the US Dollar's collapse while the Dollar is the world reserve currency is silly.
I was discussing this today. I hope that it doesn't get switched to some other currency or we're SCREWED.
(when the debt>GDP the ability of the world reserve currency status helps to prop up a terrible currency)
-----signature-----
My folks went on vacation and all I got was this lousy sig.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sin_of_Onin
Posts:
35,113
Registered:
Jun 29, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,763
User ID: 1,062,657
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
The US currency needs to be devalued. Having foreign investors prop up debt spending is not a great idea. Look at Greece.
The harm of perpetual trade defecits supported by capital inflows is far worse than the world using other currencies as reserve currencies. The % of reserves in USD is way too high. There should be a much broader mix and the biggest reason there isn't is the German's capacity to resist the Euro becoming a major reserve currency. In large part because Germany wants to prop up their exports.
-----signature-----
"Okay... I'm with you fellas" --Delmar
F is for Fake-believe
"We apologise for the inconvenience" --God
"What Jesus fails to appreciate is that it's the meek who are the problem"--Reg
Run, Forrest! Run!
|
|
Link to this post
|
Kjarhall
Title: The Pungent One
Posts:
29,212
Registered:
Mar 1, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,233
User ID: 652,381
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Akza posted:
Kjarhall posted:
Brother_Tempus posted:
[quote=Sin_of_Onin]There are a lot of indications of upward trending in employement and consumption.
No there's not
Roubini disagrees with your dumb ass. Guess who has more cred?
rofl @ using roubini.
talk about someone who wants the world to go to hell in a handbasket. anytime there is positive news, there is some big conspiracy faking all the numbers. anytime there is negative news, all you read is "I TOLD YOU SO".[/quote]
And the point was, even with that, BT is still dumber than him.
-----signature-----
You're a crazy moron*
*http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/115147923/r115151508/
hah! true story tho i'm a woman an i even love boobs..how can you not??- HallowEve
|
|
Link to this post
|
NuEM
Posts:
15,394
Registered:
Mar 2, '04
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 13,662
User ID: 900,449
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Sin_of_Onin posted:
The US currency needs to be devalued. Having foreign investors prop up debt spending is not a great idea. Look at Greece.
The harm of perpetual trade defecits supported by capital inflows is far worse than the world using other currencies as reserve currencies. The % of reserves in USD is way too high. There should be a much broader mix and the biggest reason there isn't is the German's capacity to resist the Euro becoming a major reserve currency. In large part because Germany wants to prop up their exports.
I blame it on unions not insisting on much higher wages and the lack of general minimum wage. Even the East Europeans don't want to work here anymore because wages are too low.
-----signature-----
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Sin_of_Onin posted:
The US currency needs to be devalued. Having foreign investors prop up debt spending is not a great idea. Look at Greece.
The harm of perpetual trade defecits supported by capital inflows is far worse than the world using other currencies as reserve currencies. The % of reserves in USD is way too high. There should be a much broader mix and the biggest reason there isn't is the German's capacity to resist the Euro becoming a major reserve currency. In large part because Germany wants to prop up their exports.
More mercantilist evangelism from you, eh?
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Sin_of_Onin
Posts:
35,113
Registered:
Jun 29, '05
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 23,763
User ID: 1,062,657
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 50k to 352,000
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
Sin_of_Onin posted:
The US currency needs to be devalued. Having foreign investors prop up debt spending is not a great idea. Look at Greece.
The harm of perpetual trade defecits supported by capital inflows is far worse than the world using other currencies as reserve currencies. The % of reserves in USD is way too high. There should be a much broader mix and the biggest reason there isn't is the German's capacity to resist the Euro becoming a major reserve currency. In large part because Germany wants to prop up their exports.
More mercantilist evangelism from you, eh?
Suggesting the US stops letting mercantilist nations do whatever they want to the point of harming our economy and the economies of other nations is not an endorsement of mercantilism.
I am against mercantilism and the artificial support of trade imbalances through capital flows to the importing country. There are plenty of other modern methods that can be used but capital flows seem to be one of the most common forms these days.
-----signature-----
"Okay... I'm with you fellas" --Delmar
F is for Fake-believe
"We apologise for the inconvenience" --God
"What Jesus fails to appreciate is that it's the meek who are the problem"--Reg
Run, Forrest! Run!
|
|
Link to this post
|
