Anebriated
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Abstract:
"We offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to recent crime reductions. Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. The 5 states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortion_on_Crime
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
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Brandun
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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well, an unwanted kid should be a dead kid 
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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interesting, I thought by the title that it was going to be a simple "obvious" thing that when you make something legal, the people who do it are no longer criminals.
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Brandun posted:
well, an unwanted kid should be a dead kid
Food for thought isn't it? Dead fetus versus criminal and multiple dead victims of said criminal?
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EbonDragon
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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It doesn't really matter at all to me what the topic of this poli thread is, except that you cited wikipedia as a source of information.
So I changed your source of information, which should now read:
Wiki Entry posted:
"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime" is a controversial paper by John J. Donohue III of Yale University and Steven Levitt of University of Chicago that argues that the legalization of abortion in the 1970s contributed significantly to reductions in crime rates experienced in the 1990s. The paper, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2001, offers evidence that the falling United States crime rates of the 1990s were mostly caused by the legalization of abortion due to the Roe v. Wade court decision of 1973 and the arrival of Godzilla to Northern America.
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Of course, it's just a theory with a lot of holes in it. There are many BIG things that changed in the 70's that could have affected crime rates.
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Caoilin
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unwanted children in orphanages should be euthanized the same way we euthanize unwanted dogs and cats in shelters.
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levgre
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Anebriated posted:
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
I don't know if that is the correct focus. Even if the children are cared for and loved, an unwanted pregnancy is likely to exasperate an already dismal financial situation. They also often occur in neighborhoods with already overburdened services (which compounds the issue of family poverty, a strong and safe community otoh would help offset the family's hardships).
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Sgian_Dubh
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Caoilin posted:
unwanted children in orphanages should be euthanized the same way we euthanize unwanted dogs and cats in shelters.
They probably should.
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Sgian_Dubh
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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levgre posted:
Anebriated posted:
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
I don't know if that is the correct focus. Even if the children are cared for and loved, an unwanted pregnancy is likely to exasperate an already dismal financial situation. They also often occur in neighborhoods with already overburdened services (which compounds the issue of family poverty, a strong and safe community otoh would help offset the family's hardships).
Hold on there, bub.
You're implying that socioeconomic conditions may play a part in creating criminals.
That's just wrong.
Poor people are poor because they are lazy, and don't you forget that.
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Arc_DT
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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This was mentioned in the Freakonomics movie. (At least used to be available on Netflix streaming.) I found it an interesting hypothesis at the time, but not enough to actually read the study that drew this conclusion.
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Arc_DT
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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levgre posted:
Anebriated posted:
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
I don't know if that is the correct focus. Even if the children are cared for and loved, an unwanted pregnancy is likely to exasperate an already dismal financial situation. They also often occur in neighborhoods with already overburdened services (which compounds the issue of family poverty, a strong and safe community otoh would help offset the family's hardships).
I disagree. I think being unwanted is the bigger factor. Socioeconomics would merely determine white collar versus blue collar sociopath in this case.
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Subject:
Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Anebriated posted:
Abstract:
"We offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to recent crime reductions. Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. The 5 states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime."
[link=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortion_on_Crime http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortion_on_Crime [/l ink]
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
I buy it because it makes sense.
We know the problems that can happen with unwanted pregnancies, how it can cause or prolong poverty, the child be neglected, etc, etc.
This doesn't mean that every "unwanted" child becomes a criminal obviously and the stupid people on the planet will no doubt try to spin it that way, but it is a FACT that unwanted pregnancies are a major cause of poverty and most criminals come from impoverished communities.
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combat_mage_sc
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Very true. It's mostly inner city scum that get abortions anyway.
Less Ubama supporters. 
God bless Margaret Sanger!
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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combat_mage_sc posted:
Very true. It's mostly inner city scum that get abortions anyway.
Less Ubama supporters.
God bless Margaret Sanger!
You posted almost exactly what I expected you to 
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Anebriated
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Arc_DT posted:
This was mentioned in the Freakonomics movie. (At least used to be available on Netflix streaming.) I found it an interesting hypothesis at the time, but not enough to actually read the study that drew this conclusion.
it's all a bunch of crazy statistics stuff anyways. maybe i should try and teach myself statistics? 
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Ah-Schoo
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Dark_EternalFF posted:
cumbot_mage_sc posted:
Very true. It's mostly inner city scum that get abortions anyway.
Less Ubama supporters.
God bless Margaret Sanger!
You posted almost exactly what I expected you to
lols
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levgre
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Arc_DT posted:
levgre posted:
Anebriated posted:
I guess the argument is unwanted kids are more likely to be criminals. a very conservative argument if you think about it. more evidence to support the importance of a good family.
I don't know if that is the correct focus. Even if the children are cared for and loved, an unwanted pregnancy is likely to exasperate an already dismal financial situation. They also often occur in neighborhoods with already overburdened services (which compounds the issue of family poverty, a strong and safe community otoh would help offset the family's hardships).
I disagree. I think being unwanted is the bigger factor. Socioeconomics would merely determine white collar versus blue collar sociopath in this case.
There are plenty of children loved by their parents (well, at least their mom) that get into crime. A parent struggling with poverty is also likely to have psychological issues which affects their ability to be a parent.
Heck lots of middle class kids with responsible parents go down bad paths. Who's opinion do young adults tend to care about more, their parents or their peers?
And we are not talking about sociopaths. Most criminals acts are not committed by sociopaths, even if many of the more severe crimes are. (although I suppose some may use broad, imo inaccurate criteria for psychopathy)
I never said that parenting wasn't overall the bigger factor in determining whether a child becomes a criminal. But in the case of abortion, they are most often born into the socioeconomic situation that turns many people to crime regardless of loving vs absent parent(s).
I also think very few middle class kids who are "truly" unwanted would become criminals. It certainly would be higher, mostly those were outright abused. But the example set by the world around them would generally deter them from becoming a criminal.
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Anebriated
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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what if, instead of unwantedness, it's really about who's getting abortions and who isn't.
so who is most likely to accidentally get pregnant? a person likely to be a good parent or a person likely to be a not so good parent?
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Jezza_Belle
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Anebriated posted:
what if, instead of unwantedness, it's really about who's getting abortions and who isn't.
so who is most likely to accidentally get pregnant? a person likely to be a good parent or a person likely to be a not so good parent?
more importantly, who can afford an abortion, and who can't. Welfare no longer pays for them.
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Sith_Mauler
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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look at it this way, do you want to pay higher taxes.
because these unwanted children that become wards of the state has to be cared for and the state is on the hook for it, using your tax dollars.
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myxomatosis8
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Sith_Mauler posted:
look at it this way, do you want to pay higher taxes.
because these unwanted children that become wards of the state has to be cared for and the state is on the hook for it, using your tax dollars.
Every fetus is precious and somehow, magically, someone will take care of them properly, they will be loved and have secure and happy childhoods. Abortion is evil.
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Anyone else think of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0kJHQpvgB8 (monty python every sperm is sacred)
Whether you have a kid or not, on a macro level, really makes huge differences.
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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criminalize abortion. sanction sterilization.
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Anebriated posted:
Arc_DT posted:
This was mentioned in the Freakonomics movie. (At least used to be available on Netflix streaming.) I found it an interesting hypothesis at the time, but not enough to actually read the study that drew this conclusion.
it's all a bunch of crazy statistics stuff anyways. maybe i should try and teach myself statistics?
Yes, but I minored in math and know statistics, and have a master's in library science and know how to read a study.
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Chogram
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If you look hard enough you could find statistics to prove almost anything.
It's just a matter of what numbers you use, and which numbers or facts that you completely leave out.
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Arc_DT
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Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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levgre posted:
There are plenty of children loved by their parents (well, at least their mom) that get into crime. A parent struggling with poverty is also likely to have psychological issues which affects their ability to be a parent.
Heck lots of middle class kids with responsible parents go down bad paths. Who's opinion do young adults tend to care about more, their parents or their peers?
And we are not talking about sociopaths. Most criminals acts are not committed by sociopaths, even if many of the more severe crimes are. (although I suppose some may use broad, imo inaccurate criteria for psychopathy)
We're talking about trends and inductive reasoning, not determinism and deductive reasoning. Being able to provide a few counterexamples doesn't prove squat in this case.
As for "sociopaths," the original claim was actually about VIOLENT crime... other crime didn't see the same drop. Not every sociopath is like the movies; it's varying degrees of lack of empathy. I'm not claiming as fact that not wanting a child -> sociopath (and certainly not the reverse implication), just that the hypothesis passes the sniff test.
I would find it hard to believe that VIOLENT crime is caused by poverty. Poverty is more likely to cause theft than anything else, with armed robbery as the only foreseeable crossover with violent crime.
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Chogram posted:
If you look hard enough you could find statistics to prove almost anything.
It's just a matter of what numbers you use, and which numbers or facts that you completely leave out.
This is a typical belief of the unwashed masses, but someone trained in experimental techniques can definitely differentiate valid from invalid claims. That's not the same as the math; it's a field of knowing the different types of experiments, how strong their conclusions can be, how well the researcher applied the specific criteria for the type of experiment in the study, and how directly the conclusion was related to the actual experiment.
Experimental Psychology would be the field most associated with these skills. And no, I'm not a psychologist and I'm not an expert in this, but I've had some experimental psychology in my undergrad and specific training in evaluating studies in my MLIS so I at least know what to look for.
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Dead Babiez don't rob liquor stores
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Arc_DT posted:
Chogram posted:
If you look hard enough you could find statistics to prove almost anything.
It's just a matter of what numbers you use, and which numbers or facts that you completely leave out.
This is a typical belief of the unwashed masses, but someone trained in experimental techniques can definitely differentiate valid from invalid claims. That's not the same as the math; it's a field of knowing the different types of experiments, how strong their conclusions can be, how well the researcher applied the specific criteria for the type of experiment in the study, and how directly the conclusion was related to the actual experiment.
Experimental Psychology would be the field most associated with these skills. And no, I'm not a psychologist and I'm not an expert in this, but I've had some experimental psychology in my undergrad and specific training in evaluating studies in my MLIS so I at least know what to look for.
The Atari 2600 was released in 1977, crime has gone down since.
Video games reduce crime 
That's what this article did with abortion.
I didn't say anything about it being a good study. I just said that with the right information, and omitting other information, you can say anything that you want and have statistics to back it up.
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It's true though after the Atari came out I stopped raping a young boy (myself).
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Chogram posted:
The Atari 2600 was released in 1977, crime has gone down since.
Video games reduce crime
That's what this article did with abortion.
I'm not going to defend a paper I haven't read, but your plop of brain s**t onto my screen is both a clear example of bad experimental design AND not a match for the methods described in the abstract of the paper.
Come back after you get an education, and maybe we can discuss some of the finer details of life.
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Arc_DT posted:
Chogram posted:
The Atari 2600 was released in 1977, crime has gone down since.
Video games reduce crime
That's what this article did with abortion.
I'm not going to defend a paper I haven't read, but your plop of brain s**t onto my screen is both a clear example of bad experimental design AND not a match for the methods described in the abstract of the paper.
Come back after you get an education, and maybe we can discuss some of the finer details of life.
http://gamepolitics.com/2011/08/23/research-video-games-help-reduce-crime-rates-us
Or are those guys plopping brain **** also?
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Arc_DT
Title: Mithan said I am smart
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May 28, '02
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Subject:
Legalizing Abortion Reduces Crime?
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Chogram posted:
http://gamepolitics.com/2011/08/23/research-video-games-help-reduce-crime-rates-us
Or are those guys plopping brain **** also?
That's an article about the article. I'm not even going to scan that one for BS.
Here's the actual article:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID174508_code010501110.pdf?abstractid=174508&mirid=1
Now, were they dropping brain s**t? Possibly. Very few social science experiments can follow the "holy grail" pattern of perfectly random selection, perfectly random assignment to experimental and control groups, pre-test post-test and all other factors except the experimental variable identical to both groups, and multiple blinds on the participants and data collectors. Those that can't do this have the drawbacks of weaker conclusions and the impetus to justify their methods to the audience, to convince us that their methods were valid.
Most of the paper is about the "sniff test" justification for their conclusions, and the actual methods aren't much more involved than what they include in the abstract. (That's not unusual.) I don't think they present a *conclusive* case for their argument, particularly when they try to extrapolate their findings to "possibly 50% reduction in crime" and other dubious conclusions.
What differentiates them from your Atari example, however, is that they were able to find correlations (and yes, correlation <> causation, but economic researchers in particular have a lot of tricks to help infer cause from correlation, especially when one demonstrably occurs *before* the other) between different abortion rates and abortion laws pre Roe v Wade that supported their hypothesis.
The comparison to your example would be the Atari 2600 being released at different times in different states, and comparing sales figures per capita in various states to crime rates. Theirs might still be a spurious correlation, because it's impossible to account for all other potential variables retrospectively over such a large period of time. The *reasonable* assumption that anything that affects such a large, wide, and diverse group of people would round out helps them here.
I think they present a reasonable argument to believe that abortion *could* be a factor, but they don't make a strong enough case to seal the deal. It would be strong enough to use as a basis to create other experiments to determine what the precise link could be, such as Levgre's and my side discussion of socioeconomics versus sociopaths. It's not strong enough for a politician to use as a justification for legal abortion in her political platform, let alone to set government policy.
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