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Boards Archive] |
Welcome to the Vault Network
forum archive.
This is not a complete archive, time didn't allot us the
opportunity to properly backup the majority of the boards
deemed "expendable". Most boards on this list have at least
20-40 pages archived (non-logged in pages, 15 topics per
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Popular boards may have as many as 250 pages archived at 50
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Managers, Moderators, VIP's, and regular posters.
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Topic: Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
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Subject:
Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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...because the workforce actually decreased by 50,000. After also decreasing by 150,000 in November. (The numbers who dropped out of the workforce didn't equal the number of new jobs created. You already know this, if you're following the weekly posts I make on jobs).
Some details:
* Private sector job growth up 212k in Dec, vs 120k in Nov.
* Nonfarm payrolls adjusted numbers up 112,000 from 110,000 last month.
Average work hours/week up by 1/10th of a percent, which is the equivalent of the existing workforce covering the slack of an additional 400,000 jobs. (Meaning there was that much slack in the system with existing headcount). If that keeps up, that's good, because eventually the slack is gone and employers have to hire.
U6 (unemployed and underemployed) is 15.2%, down from 15.6% in November.
Net: Even with the seasonal upswing of hiring during the holidays, we still aren't growing jobs. Workforce participation is still shrinking. We'll need to grow jobs AND the % of the US participating in those jobs before we start to see a light at the end of the tunnel. (And then hope the trains called European Debt and Iran Oil War aren't the light barrelling at us).
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
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GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
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Mar 22, '06
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Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
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Subject:
Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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Working is fo suckas. I'm just going to vote for obama and let the gubbamint by me stuff.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
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theredkay1
Posts:
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User ID: 1,297,378
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Subject:
Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
...because the workforce actually decreased by 50,000. After also decreasing by 150,000 in November.
This months drop was entirely kids 16-19. The over 20 population was up 33,000.
The 16-19 group consistently drops every winter before starting to rebound in Feb or March.
Doesnt seem concerning to me but who knows......
-----signature-----
(none)
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Sin_of_Onin
Posts:
35,113
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Jun 29, '05
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User ID: 1,062,657
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Subject:
Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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The US needs more mercantilism.
-----signature-----
"Okay... I'm with you fellas" --Delmar
F is for Fake-believe
"We apologise for the inconvenience" --God
"What Jesus fails to appreciate is that it's the meek who are the problem"--Reg
Run, Forrest! Run!
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Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
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Subject:
Dec: Non-farm payrolls up 200,000. Don't get too excited...
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theredkay1 posted:
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
...because the workforce actually decreased by 50,000. After also decreasing by 150,000 in November.
This months drop was entirely kids 16-19. The over 20 population was up 33,000.
The 16-19 group consistently drops every winter before starting to rebound in Feb or March.
Doesnt seem concerning to me but who knows......
These are seasonally adjusted numbers so that *shouldn't* be the case. But, that part is hocus-pocus. Even the analysts are saying that with the numbers getting retroactively adjusted 20-40% on a regular basis, anything other than quarterly U6 and 3-month running sector analysis is pretty useless.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
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