|
|
|
|
| [VN
Boards Archive] |
Welcome to the Vault Network
forum archive.
This is not a complete archive, time didn't allot us the
opportunity to properly backup the majority of the boards
deemed "expendable". Most boards on this list have at least
20-40 pages archived (non-logged in pages, 15 topics per
page).
Popular boards may have as many as 250 pages archived at 50
topics per page, while others deemed of historical
signifigance may be archived in their entirety.
We may not agree with how the board shutdown was managed, but
we've done what we could to preserve some of its history in
lieu of that.
Please enjoy the archive.
~
Managers, Moderators, VIP's, and regular posters.
|
| Author |
Topic: This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
suntzukali2
Posts:
21,648
Registered:
Jan 23, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 21,117
User ID: 626,430
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-skyrocket-iran-closed-142205272.html
Oil Price Would Skyrocket if Iran Closed the Strait of Hormuz
HOUSTON — If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.
An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.
United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.
Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,†according to Energy Department analysts.
A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.
Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.
“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,†said Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “There is a peril of engaging in brinksmanship from all sides.â€
Various Iranian officials in recent weeks have said they would blockade the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, if the United States and Europe imposed a tight oil embargo on their country in an effort to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.
That did not stop President Obama from signing legislation last weekend imposing sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank intended to make it more difficult for the country to sell its oil, nor did it dissuade the European Union from moving toward a ban on Iranian oil imports.
Energy analysts say even a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could raise the world price of oil within days by $50 a barrel or more, and that would quickly push the price of a gallon of regular gasoline to well over $4 a gallon. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,†said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Just the threat of such a development has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel in recent weeks despite a return of Libyan oil to world markets, worries of a European economic downturn and weakening American gasoline demand. Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as the political tensions intensified.
American officials have warned Iran against violating international laws that protect commercial shipping in international waters, adding that the Navy would guarantee free sea traffic.
“If the Iranians chose to use their modest navy and antiship missiles to attack allied forces, they would see a probable swift devastation of their naval capability,†said David L. Goldwyn, former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs. “We would take out their frigates.â€
More than 85 percent of the oil and most of the natural gas that flows through the strait goes to China, Japan, India, South Korea and other Asian nations. But a blockade would have a ripple effect on global oil prices.
Since Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all rely on the strait to ship their oil and natural gas exports, a blockade might undermine some of those governments in an already unstable region.
Analysts say that a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would most likely bring China and the United States into something of an alliance to restore shipments, although Mr. Goldwyn said China would more likely resort to private diplomacy instead of military force.
Europe and the United States would probably feel the least direct impact because they have strategic oil reserves and could get some Persian Gulf oil through Red Sea pipelines. Saudi Arabia has pipelines that could transport about five million barrels out of the region, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also have pipelines with large capacities.
But transportation costs would be higher if the strait were blocked, and several million barrels of oil exports would remain stranded, sending energy prices soaring on global markets.
“To close the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of war against the whole world,†said Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former head of exploration and development at Saudi Aramco. “You just can’t play with the global economy and assume that nobody is going to react.â€
The Iranians have struck in the strait before. In the 1980s, Iran attacked Kuwaiti tankers carrying Iraqi oil, and the Reagan administration reflagged Kuwaiti ships under American flags and escorted them with American warships. Iran backed down, partially, but continued to plant mines.
In 1988, an American frigate hit an Iranian mine and nearly sank. United States warships retaliated by destroying some Iranian oil platforms. Attacks and counterattacks continued for months, and a missile from an American warship accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger aircraft, killing 290 passengers.
Energy experts say a crisis in the strait would most likely unfold gradually, with Iran using its threats as a way to increase oil prices and shipping costs for the West as retaliation against the tightening of sanctions. So far, energy experts say, insurance companies have not raised prices for covering tankers, but shipping companies are already preparing to pay bonuses for crews facing more hazardous duties.
“My guess is this is a lot of threats,†said Michael A. Levi, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, “but there is no certainty in this kind of situation.â€
Not trying to be one of those tin foil hat wearing people but its funny after we reched peak oil 9-11 happened we had no choice but to invade and occupy afghanistan,Iraq had to issue a no fly zone in Libya probally engineered riots in libya,egypt,tunisa and syria.
Just saying
-----signature-----
The ultimate end of all revolutionary social change is to establish the sanctity of human life, the dignity of man, the right of every human being to liberty and well-being. Emma Goldman self portrait http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v375/xyzzy11686
|
|
Link to this post
|
Ptilk
Title: Creepy old pirate
Posts:
50,658
Registered:
Feb 13, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 48,530
User ID: 645,124
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
You never have to justify war to Americans. Just say, "We have to do it because they hate our freedom" and watch 7/8ths of the country start frothing at the mouth and calling for nuclear strikes and bombing campaigns to kill every kid in whatever country they claim is hating us this week.
The world has never seen a larger collection of god damn idiots in one place. Every time I hear someone start bitching about how stupid Congress is, all I can think of is how perfectly they represent their constituents.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
HeartView
Title: Be right back...
Posts:
39,286
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 38,575
User ID: 561,961
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
If they blockade that route, we'd have to stand in line to attack them. The world's response would be harsh and quick (by UN standards, at least).
-----signature-----
"My brothers and sisters all hated me because I was an only child." http://www.indiefl.com/acf/profile/86 PM me for the password to my Photobucket: http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v455/HeartView/
|
|
Link to this post
|
Reapist
Title: Official ACF HIOFI Poster
Posts:
74,991
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 74,235
User ID: 559,475
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
O don't think Iran wants to experience "private diplomacy" from China. They are not as tempered as the US.
-----signature-----
pkhere: Jebus sometimes you make my arse tired.
Referring to illegal aliens as 'immigrants' is the same as referring to shoplifters as 'shoppers' - Dorvinion
I'd feel bad for Satriani but he got himself into it. - allmightybob_MLF
|
|
Link to this post
|
regulator_cracka
Title: They finally recognized greatness.
Posts:
22,259
Registered:
Jan 6, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 22,219
User ID: 1,343,795
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
Ptilk posted:
You never have to justify war to Americans. Just say, "We have to do it because they hate our freedom" and watch 7/8ths of the country start frothing at the mouth and calling for nuclear strikes and bombing campaigns to kill every kid in whatever country they claim is hating us this week.
The world has never seen a larger collection of god damn idiots in one place. Every time I hear someone start bitching about how stupid Congress is, all I can think of is how perfectly they represent their constituents.
Hopefully the bush/cheney scam on the American people has changed that some.
-----signature-----
Self Appointed Smart Ass - Level 80
If you think my opinion is idiotic, re-read yours.
Dont worry I will give my opinion anyways.
The PvP MMO is NOT a "niche" market, Mythic is just a "niche" company.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Fozzie_Bear
Posts:
48,479
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 47,515
User ID: 558,887
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
buy oil
rodger
-----signature-----
The Oatmeal Butterscotch paired with a Snickerdoodle
turned my cynical penis into a happy vagina
Then after an Oatmeal Cranberry and Double Chocolate,
it made my new vagina spontaneously sing the Trolololo Song in an elevator.
---AkagiyamaMissile
|
|
Link to this post
|
JD_HOGG
Posts:
19,975
Registered:
Mar 18, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,893
User ID: 1,285,011
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
They, meaning Obama?
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
HeartView
Title: Be right back...
Posts:
39,286
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 38,575
User ID: 561,961
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
JD_HOGG posted:
They, meaning Obama?
Silly you! You still think the President has power outside his office!
-----signature-----
"My brothers and sisters all hated me because I was an only child." http://www.indiefl.com/acf/profile/86 PM me for the password to my Photobucket: http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v455/HeartView/
|
|
Link to this post
|
Cuttlery
Title: Wanna see what you missed?
Posts:
76,924
Registered:
Jan 9, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 72,785
User ID: 62,026
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
The only justification I need is that they are from the Middle East.
-----signature-----
0.o
Bored and Useless
|
|
Link to this post
|
JD_HOGG
Posts:
19,975
Registered:
Mar 18, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,893
User ID: 1,285,011
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
So who is they if it's not the prezdunt? I want to know who to watch out for.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Tai-Daishar_MT
Title: Moderator
Troll Eradicator
Posts:
18,124
Registered:
Mar 9, '00
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 16,150
User ID: 14,326
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
We played that game with Iran seemingly all throughout my naval career and I suspect it will be played for some time to come. The only difference is it gets more media coverage now and that I no longer have to make that transit through the straits anymore 
-----signature-----
Fare thee well VN, Vini, Vidi, Vici!
|
|
Link to this post
|
Fozzie_Bear
Posts:
48,479
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 47,515
User ID: 558,887
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
HeartView posted:
JD_HOGG posted:
They, meaning Obama?
Silly you! You still think the President has power outside his office!
If the fancy struck him, I bet he could make a few phone calls and your life would become a living hell even in Germany.
who you are is only half as important as who you know
-----signature-----
The Oatmeal Butterscotch paired with a Snickerdoodle
turned my cynical penis into a happy vagina
Then after an Oatmeal Cranberry and Double Chocolate,
it made my new vagina spontaneously sing the Trolololo Song in an elevator.
---AkagiyamaMissile
|
|
Link to this post
|
HeartView
Title: Be right back...
Posts:
39,286
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 38,575
User ID: 561,961
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
Fozzie_Bear posted:
If the fancy struck him, I bet he could make a few phone calls and your life would become a living hell even in Germany.
who you are is only half as important as who you know
And sometimes, who knows you is all it takes to stop you.
-----signature-----
"My brothers and sisters all hated me because I was an only child." http://www.indiefl.com/acf/profile/86 PM me for the password to my Photobucket: http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v455/HeartView/
|
|
Link to this post
|
regulator_cracka
Title: They finally recognized greatness.
Posts:
22,259
Registered:
Jan 6, '09
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 22,219
User ID: 1,343,795
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
Yeah, who is "they"? Is that racist?
-----signature-----
Self Appointed Smart Ass - Level 80
If you think my opinion is idiotic, re-read yours.
Dont worry I will give my opinion anyways.
The PvP MMO is NOT a "niche" market, Mythic is just a "niche" company.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Dark_EternalFF
Title: Official ACF Turd
Posts:
85,900
Registered:
Nov 8, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 84,100
User ID: 736,311
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
Why would Iran block the Strait? Like 80% of their frickin oil exports come through there, and that's the only damn thing keeping their economy afloat right now!
-----signature-----
Max Fox (AC), Zygran (WoW, SWTOR) "We poison our air and water to weed out the weak! We set off fission bombs in our only biosphere! We nailed our God to a stick! Don't fk with the human race!" DE/Mr Pants 2012 
|
|
Link to this post
|
Cuttlery
Title: Wanna see what you missed?
Posts:
76,924
Registered:
Jan 9, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 72,785
User ID: 62,026
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
|
Their women cant wear thong bikinis in public even though their entire country is a beach, what more reason do we need?
-----signature-----
0.o
Bored and Useless
|
|
Link to this post
|
notmforce2k
Posts:
96,434
Registered:
Oct 9, '11
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 2,235
User ID: 1,430,866
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
Ptilk posted:
You never have to justify war to Americans. Just say, "We have to do it because they hate our freedom" and watch 7/8ths of the country start frothing at the mouth and calling for nuclear strikes and bombing campaigns to kill every kid in whatever country they claim is hating us this week.
The world has never seen a larger collection of god damn idiots in one place. Every time I hear someone start bitching about how stupid Congress is, all I can think of is how perfectly they represent their constituents.
TIME TO TURN EM INTO A PARKING LOT BRAH!!!1
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
HeartView
Title: Be right back...
Posts:
39,286
Registered:
Dec 20, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 38,575
User ID: 561,961
|
Subject:
This is how they will justify invading Iran
|
I think it's their counter threat to the EU sanctioning their oil. "If we can't make money with oil then everyone will suffer."
Or something.
-----signature-----
"My brothers and sisters all hated me because I was an only child." http://www.indiefl.com/acf/profile/86 PM me for the password to my Photobucket: http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v455/HeartView/
|
|
Link to this post
|
|
|
| © 2012. All
Rights Reserved. |
|
|
|
|
