Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
The line of people making their initial claims is down slightly. We are still in the zone where we are not creating more jobs than we are losing fast enough to make up for anything other than 'normal churn' of death, layoffs and retirement. To achieve that we'd have to get below 350,000 and stay there.
tl;dr -- we are still losing ground.
4 week moving average is down to 373,250.
OK, so now we're moving into the post-holiday period. There is often hiring during that season to handle shipping, retail, etc. We will see if even this poor lift was just seasonal, or if we'll just keep skipping along without improvement (or slide further).
Official U6 -- unemployed and underemployed -- should be reported within the next week. It will probably be slightly down given these numbers last month, but not much.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Altra_Shadowstalker
Posts:
17,553
Registered:
Jan 17, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 16,076
User ID: 616,837
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
|
Thank you, I always appreciate any measurement of the pulse of the country.
-----signature-----
"Goddammit, Swearengen, I don't trust you as far as I could th'ow you, but I enjoy the way you lie."
I don't typo often, but when I do, I blame Swype.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
I'd love to see this spike down to 250k or so and watch U6 drop from 15-ish to 12-ish.
But I don't think that'll happen any time soon.
I've been listening to so many analysts talk about the housing overhang and the commercial real estate overhang, paired with the student loan mess, that I am starting to wonder if we won't be deleveraging as a society for a whole generation. Crushing the middle class as we go.
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
Elkad
Title: aka Ebenezer
Posts:
8,058
Registered:
Sep 11, '03
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 7,478
User ID: 837,586
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
I know the "seasonal adjustment" is usually fairly accurate. But it doesn't feel like it.
535k actual claims.
-----signature-----
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty, than those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson
|
|
Link to this post
|
Moe_Nox
Title: In Moe We Trust
Posts:
22,319
Registered:
Feb 4, '07
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 19,181
User ID: 1,203,840
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
So if no jobs are being created, and the unemployment numbers are going down, the question is: What is happening to the jobless?
-----signature-----
The Nanny State cometh Currency should be bacon cheeseburgers and blow jobs... - Reese Life at the Outpost: http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1771556
|
|
Link to this post
|
Bonzoboy1
Posts:
7,090
Registered:
Aug 1, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 7,015
User ID: 1,312,136
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
Moe_Nox posted:
So if no jobs are being created, and the unemployment numbers are going down, the question is: What is happening to the jobless?
-----signature-----
Politicians are like diapers, they should be changed often and for the same reason.
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
Elkad posted:
I know the "seasonal adjustment" is usually fairly accurate. But it doesn't feel like it.
535k actual claims.
It was 579k at the same point last year. And 650k the year before.
Things are certainly improving. Slowly.
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
theredkay1 posted:
Elkad posted:
I know the "seasonal adjustment" is usually fairly accurate. But it doesn't feel like it.
535k actual claims.
It was 579k at the same point last year. And 650k the year before.
Things are certainly improving. Slowly.
only liberals could call a situation where more people are out of work this month than last month an improvement.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
Indeed. Things aren't "improving slowly."
They are simply "declining at a somewhat slower pace". 
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
Indeed. Things aren't "improving slowly."
They are simply "declining at a somewhat slower pace".
This line of argument is just another variation of, "IT COULD HAVE BEENA LOT WORSE!"
It is the dems primary argument. I'm not even sure what they would say if they actually did something successful at anything.
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
Akza
Posts:
10,121
Registered:
Sep 8, '02
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 9,783
User ID: 713,614
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
GrilledCheez posted:
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
Indeed. Things aren't "improving slowly."
They are simply "declining at a somewhat slower pace".
This line of argument is just another variation of, "IT COULD HAVE BEENA LOT WORSE!"
It is the dems primary argument. I'm not even sure what they would say if they actually did something successful at anything.
Oh sweet, party-line attacks. Maybe if companies would use their tax breaks to actually hire people, there would be less jobless! Of course the reality is that the wealthy would rather sit on that money or set up even more offshore plants than create jobs here-- all at the expense of the country through less taxed revenue! Yay America!
Oh wait.. no it's all those awful democrats' faults. The ones that aren't running the house now. Tax cuts and all for everybody!
-----signature-----
·»Teydis ¤ Igraine«· ·»»·â€œ ¤Herra¤ “·««· http://www.backloggery.com/teylix
|
|
Link to this post
|
theredkay1
Posts:
6,731
Registered:
May 16, '08
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 6,729
User ID: 1,297,378
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
We have more jobs than we used to. Job growth is slowly outpacing working age population growth.
Most people would correctly see this as a small steps forward. I dont know why AA feels it necessary to portray all data, regardless of what it actually says, as a step backwards. This is his schtick. He's made up his mind about something and he wont let the data get in his way!
-----signature-----
(none)
|
|
Link to this post
|
Abaddon_Ambrosius
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts:
25,187
Registered:
Dec 21, '01
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 25,057
User ID: 568,022
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
<shrug>
The numbers are the numbers. Nothing will change the fact that we have a lower percentage of the workforce working or fully-employed, we're falling further and further behind on that front, and there *is* a definitive number that will show an actual reversing of that trend, if we hit it and sustain it for at least couple months.
They're numbers. They're firm, not the fluff politicians use. And the targets to hit to reverse the trend are the same ones I've been pointing at for 18 or so months.
Trolling won't make any of those facts change. 
-----signature-----
In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?"
"God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight
"Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
|
|
Link to this post
|
GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts:
37,872
Registered:
Mar 22, '06
Extended Info (if available)
Real Post Cnt: 26,537
User ID: 1,125,840
|
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 15k to 372,000
|
theredkay1 posted:
IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE! IT WAS WORSE LAST MONTH!
-----signature-----
Another word for expensive is successful.
|
|
Link to this post
|
