VN Boards Archive

[VN Boards Archive]

Welcome to the Vault Network forum archive.

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Topic: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000

Abaddon_Ambrosius Title: Retired Theurgist TL Posts: 25,187 Registered: Dec 21, '01 Extended Info (if available) Real Post Cnt: 25,057 User ID: 568,022	Subject: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000
	This is disappointing to the economists... it doesn't quite hit expectation of around 370,000. Continuing claims for unemployment are up slightly from 3.55 to 3.6 million. This is despite the fact many are now falling off the rolls after being unemployed 80-99 weeks (or more). We're now backsliding again and have never hit that magic number of around 350,000 weekly jobless claims or less, which would indicate job growth and replacement. We are still in the zone now where we are structurally losing jobs, people are underemployed or have dropped out of the work force altogether, and we are not replacing those jobs. As discussed here before, the 'government' unemployment rate cited in the MSM means nothing, so I don't bother to report it. U6, the measure of unemployed and underemployed workers, is reported monthly. That's at 15.6%, to be updated early January. -----signature----- In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?" "God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight "Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
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Brother_Tempus Title: Patriot Posts: 48,624 Registered: Jan 9, '01 Extended Info (if available) Real Post Cnt: 48,310 User ID: 61,868	Subject: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000
	Abaddon_Ambrosius posted: Continuing claims for unemployment are up slightly from 3.55 to 3.6 million. This is despite the fact many are now falling off the rolls after being unemployed 80-99 weeks (or more). This is why the numbers are truly meaningless. If you are not going to count all the unemployed people as unemployed than what purpose is the weekly report serving other than to lie and obfuscate? The other thing to mention is that unless companies can shed more jobs this year, the profits they have been reaping will be reduced dramatically impacting the businesses themselves. -----signature----- You win ACF, dude - Osmenthe BT is usually right - Onslaught i think we need more BT on page 1 - FighterUSAF Yep, BT is right - Aerlinthian Got guns & ammo? Food? Precious metals?
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theredkay1 Posts: 6,731 Registered: May 16, '08 Extended Info (if available) Real Post Cnt: 6,729 User ID: 1,297,378	Subject: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000
	Brother_Tempus posted: This is why the numbers are truly meaningless. If you are not going to count all the unemployed people as unemployed than what purpose is the weekly report serving other than to lie and obfuscate? The gov't collects and distributes lots of different economic statistics. They do calculate the number you are looking for on a monthly basis. Perhaps a significantly larger BLS staff could give you the numbers you want on a weekly basis. Abaddon_Ambrosius posted: Continuing claims for unemployment are up slightly from 3.55 to 3.6 million. This is despite the fact many are now falling off the rolls after being unemployed 80-99 weeks (or more). We're now backsliding again.... Dont get caught up too much in weekly numbers, especially the initial weekly numbers. The 381,00 initial claims is the third best number in the last 3 years (i didnt look further) and given the nature of the seasonal adjustments, the 5% jump this week is fairly meaningless. The numbers arent great, but December looks better than any month in 2011 and you cant conclude we are 'backsliding' given the limited info we have. -----signature----- (none)
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imaloon1 Posts: 25,153 Registered: Sep 15, '03 Extended Info (if available) Real Post Cnt: 19,758 User ID: 838,293	Subject: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000
	If this is the best December number we can pull then Jan-March are really going to blow goats. -----signature----- The time draws nearer to your fate
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Abaddon_Ambrosius Title: Retired Theurgist TL Posts: 25,187 Registered: Dec 21, '01 Extended Info (if available) Real Post Cnt: 25,057 User ID: 568,022	Subject: Weekly initial jobless claims up 15k to 381,000
	re: Backsliding: That's not a 'weekly' statement. Any number of initial claims above 350,000 is backsliding, because we are not replacing jobs at a rate faster than normal attrition. This statement is made every single week in this weekly post for months, now. We have been backsliding on jobs replacement for the last 2+ years now. We have never achieved 350,000 in that time (and beyond). -----signature----- In the immortal words of Socrates - "I drank what?" "God you guys suck at the internet - how can you fail to locate porn?!" - Eternal_Midnight "Knowing means nothing." - Fat-badger
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