Author Topic: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
croaks35 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/36351/World_of_Warcraft_Subscriptions_Continue_To_Decline_Though_More_Slowly.php



I am sure the fanboys will be quick to think of some reason why it isn't correct.

 

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Fedup23 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Wait.. subscriptions are dropping!? shock Wow, thanks for the heads up!

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Some of the most notable spin I have ever seen.

Blizzard president Michael Morhaime said that the decline -- now in its second quarter -- is to be expected after the release of a major expansion like December's Cataclysm, saying that "what we have seen is that subscribership tends to be seasonal and driven by content updates."

"As our players have become more experienced playing World of Warcraft over many years, they have become much better and much faster at consuming content," he said at the time. "And so I think with Cataclysm they were able to consume the content faster than with previous expansions, but that's why we're working on developing more content."

silly

I think before Wraths release sub numbers were at 9-10 million, and each quarter or so reports of it reaching another million during Wraths run was normal, reaching the 12+ mill mark before Cata released.

As far as players consuming content quicker, I guess he is just talking about the top end world first guilds here, unlike Wrath half the player base didn't want to spend hours to consume the content. talk_hand

 

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Trigeminal 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Most game companies would die to have 10ish million paying subscribers and they'd put competent people in charge... most.

 

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TheHighCounsel 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Yea both my alliance and horde guilds have just given up on wow and at this point have given up on MMOs. Guess we'll see what happens next.

 

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GutterSludge 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
JaconKin posted:
Some of the most notable spin I have ever seen.

Blizzard president Michael Morhaime said that the decline -- now in its second quarter -- is to be expected after the release of a major expansion like December's Cataclysm, saying that "what we have seen is that subscribership tends to be seasonal and driven by content updates."

"As our players have become more experienced playing World of Warcraft over many years, they have become much better and much faster at consuming content," he said at the time. "And so I think with Cataclysm they were able to consume the content faster than with previous expansions, but that's why we're working on developing more content."

silly

I think before Wraths release sub numbers were at 9-10 million, and each quarter or so reports of it reaching another million during Wraths run was normal, reaching the 12+ mill mark before Cata released.

As far as players consuming content quicker, I guess he is just talking about the top end world first guilds here, unlike Wrath half the player base didn't want to spend hours to consume the content. talk_hand


Nahh, hes just trying to cover his ass, and explain away the loss of a million subs with the implementation of GC's "vision".

 

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The_Korrigan 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Oh no! They "only" have 11.1 milion players left... they are doomed! The end is near!

laugh

All other western MMO developers would be ready to make a pact with the devil himself to have even just 25% of that playerbase tongue

 

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kuide 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
They are not western subs,they are mainly asian subs.Europe would be less than 1 million in my opinion,no idea about american subs.

 

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Blisteringballs 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
kuide posted:
They are not western subs,they are mainly asian subs.Europe would be less than 1 million in my opinion,no idea about american subs.


No, they're Western subs. Blizzard cites as much, since this is in relation to Cataclysm subs. Asia just got it, like a few weeks ago.

I personally expect the attrition to drop off to about 100k a quarter until thier next expansion. But the most of players lost are probably gone for good.

 

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GutterSludge 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
The_Korrigan posted:
Oh no! They "only" have 11.1 milion players left... they are doomed! The end is near!

laugh

All other western MMO developers would be ready to make a pact with the devil himself to have even just 25% of that playerbase tongue



Yah, I mean, its only a loss of 15 million a month...


No one ever misses that kind of cash..ever.


/chuckle


 

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regulator_cracka 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Thats it, this game is dead. Lock down these boards, turn out the lights.

 

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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
The_Korrigan posted:
Oh no! They "only" have 11.1 milion players left... they are doomed! The end is near!

laugh

All other western MMO developers would be ready to make a pact with the devil himself to have even just 25% of that playerbase tongue


 

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Racines 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
It is clearly a drop in NA/EU subscriptions since Asia got CAT a couple of weeks ago.

I wonder if we know what is the income % generated out of NA/EU in comparison to Asia. I would not be surprised that Asia, although numbers are impressive generates less revenues in view of the business model popular there.

Their profit margin will be affected if they keep losing subscription from whealthy areas and heads will start rolling; never forget it is a public company and such company has a 3-month patience. Unfortunatly, they will likely bring a new manager who will only change management, implement new management procedures but do little on the real issues.

 

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HunterTalon 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Blisteringballs posted:
kuide posted:
They are not western subs,they are mainly asian subs.Europe would be less than 1 million in my opinion,no idea about american subs.


No, they're Western subs. Blizzard cites as much, since this is in relation to Cataclysm subs. Asia just got it, like a few weeks ago.

I personally expect the attrition to drop off to about 100k a quarter until thier next expansion. But the most of players lost are probably gone for good.


Now that's funny. I'll be the first to admit that EVERYONE stops playing WoW from time to time, but players gone for good? I haven't seen that happen yet, and I've been a WoW player since the earliest open beta.

You could be right this time since every dog has his day (and whiny naysayers only have to be right once, lucky bastards), but I think the old girl has life in her yet.

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
HunterTalon posted:
Blisteringballs posted:
kuide posted:
They are not western subs,they are mainly asian subs.Europe would be less than 1 million in my opinion,no idea about american subs.


No, they're Western subs. Blizzard cites as much, since this is in relation to Cataclysm subs. Asia just got it, like a few weeks ago.

I personally expect the attrition to drop off to about 100k a quarter until thier next expansion. But the most of players lost are probably gone for good.


Now that's funny. I'll be the first to admit that EVERYONE stops playing WoW from time to time, but players gone for good? I haven't seen that happen yet, and I've been a WoW player since the earliest open beta.

You could be right this time since every dog has his day (and whiny naysayers only have to be right once, lucky bastards), but I think the old girl has life in her yet.


Umm I don't think anybody with any sense thinks that the game is going to roll over and die right now. Nor do I think that anybody with any sense thinks that WoW doesn't have some legs left.

When you have as many players and popularity that WoW has the decline and drop will be a slow one, a bleeding, which is what we are now witnessing. Unlike more recent "WoW Killers" that have released in recent years. I think TOR, will go with this one since it is releasing sooner, has the best chance at being able to take and retain subs from WoW. The one reservation I have about the game is that once you strip it down to its core mechanics, it sill plays like WoW, the combat, the class roles, and the questing structure. With the current Rate of decline in subs you will most likely have about 1.2-1.5 million subs lost before TOR comes out. Add in say about 500k-1 million lost in subs due to the release of this game, with a retention level of players for that game at about 50%, that will be another 250-500k subs lost. So you are much closer to all of a sudden having 2 million subs lost, and depending upon how well received TOR is among the MMO population, more subs being lost in that direction.

Then you add in Guild Wars 2 to this equation, a game I think will have a bigger impact than TOR due to its push to innovate and reinvigorate the genre as a whole. If this releases in the spring of 2012 some time, that is only roughly a 4-5 month period of time after TOR's release. So you have further subscription loss of players who move onto that game. Also since GW 2 will be a free to play model it has a higher chance of retaining players since you don't have to pay anything to actually play that game, except buy the game. By this point time next year WoW could easily have lost anywhere between 2.5-3.5 million players due to its stale design after 7 years and other fresher games out on the market.



 

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Fedup23 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Alex, I'd like "Pull Some Random Numbers Out of My Ass" for $1000 please.

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Fedup23 posted:
Alex, I'd like "Pull Some Random Numbers Out of My Ass" for $1000 please.


Alex I'd like "People who understand the meaning of Analysis for 2000"

It called Analysis for a reason, the numbers aren't pulled completely from thin air. 900k subs have been lost in the past two quarters, this constitutes a trend, which then you can actually say that if X trend continues this will be the numbers. If the trend continues as it has, 600k then down to 300k then perhaps next quarter it will be 150 thousand. You then average the numbers and you can come up with a good estimate as far as what the sub loss would be during X quarter.

You then add in an rough estimate as to what you think X game will then sell and take away from your subscription base, as well as continue to add in the rough estimate of the trend of subscriptions lost, if that trend does indeed continue. You then add all these numbers together and average them together and you get a rough estimate as far as what a projected loss, or gain because it can be done in the opposite direction as well, will occur.

All major corporations actually hire and employ people to do what I just did in the above. In no way have I portrayed that the numbers are accurate they are an estimation though based on the current trend and past trends that take place when games launch. The only trend that took place last time with new games that I don't think will occur this time around is having a good portion of the player base returning shortly after X games have released.

 

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The_Korrigan 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
JaconKin posted:
Then you add in Guild Wars 2 to this equation, a game I think will have a bigger impact than TOR due to its push to innovate and reinvigorate the genre as a whole.
I disagree with that part. As much as I'm waiting for GW2 above any other game, you seem to ignore that most "basic" people hate change. The average WoW player will not like GW2, because the game doesn't imitate his all time favorite gameplay mechanics. No "holy trinity". Combats full of dynamism and special effects. The average WoW player won't like that, he wants 25 man raids with purple drops.

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
The_Korrigan posted:
JaconKin posted:
Then you add in Guild Wars 2 to this equation, a game I think will have a bigger impact than TOR due to its push to innovate and reinvigorate the genre as a whole.
I disagree with that part. As much as I'm waiting for GW2 above any other game, you seem to ignore that most "basic" people hate change. The average WoW player will not like GW2, because the game doesn't imitate his all time favorite gameplay mechanics. No "holy trinity". Combats full of dynamism and special effects. The average WoW player won't like that, he wants 25 man raids with purple drops.


Agree to disagree then, I think you are ignoring the craving that has been expressed for change and the desire to finally play something different. If people were so against change and still looking for a similar experience to WoW, then games in recent pasts that have followed the WoW model would have been able to retain better subscription numbers and not lose them back to WoW. Of course the merits of what each of these games have done to try differentiate itself from WoW could argued back and forth, as well as quality of production or end game. Many of the main arguments why people go back to WoW after leaving it is because even though these games are different from it, it still follows the same basic model that WoW is based around. A model that has been followed by every MMO game for the last seven years basically.

I mean how many WoW killers have been hyped up before, but have failed even with the features that differentiate these games from WoW. So then it is necessary to break down what it is that players are really craving when trying out new games. Is it a new setting? It is a different feature set? In the end once breaking all this down, it boils down to the fact that what players aren't looking for is different feature sets, because if players were really afraid of change, they wouldn't go out and try out new games to try to find as replacement for WoW to begin with, they would just stick with WoW. Player are in fact looking for a change, when they are out there trying new MMOs.

Yet, what are they getting when these new MMOs come out, despite changes in settings and feature sets that try to differentiate itself from WoW, the basic core of the game is the same, class roles and structure, questing structure, and even end game. All have followed a same model for the last 7 years that has been established by WoW. Once you get rid of the feature sets what it boils down to is the fact that the game plays similar to WoW. I no longer like using the term WoW clone because in the end it is a model that is being followed in the end, with WoW being the King of that particular MMO Design Model.

It is one of the major reservations I have about TOR in the end because once I look past the feature sets and that it is Star Wars, that do look good and interesting mind you, the game looks like it is going to play very similar to WoW, down to combat, questing, and of course class structure. It could be said why reinvent the wheel, when the wheel isn't broken. The problem being that after 7 years of games following a similar model, the wheel is broken and needs repairing badly.

It is why it is my opinion after examining and analyzing what has taken place in the genre since I started playing it and following it that I think the reason the next WoW killer after the next WoW killer hasn't succeeded isn't because of them not changing the game model, it is the game model itself that has caused failures and keeping with the thought that if the wheel isn't broken, don't fix it. Hence, why I think Guild Wars 2 will actually impact numbers more than TOR. Bioware went with the mentality of the wheel isn't broken, we'll just evolve that wheel from stone to wood with spokes. Arena Net has said that the wheel is indeed broken and needs a major repair job and are attempting to finally reinvent the MMO wheel so to speak.

As I said, if it isn't the Model that prevents the previous "WoW Killers" from actually succeeding, LOTRO, Aion, WAR, Rift etc. then what is it? Of course each of one these games are perhaps better examples than some others, from a quality and production value standpoint as well as various feature sets that were supposed to be more innovative. If players are leaving WoW and complaining about 45 minute wait times as a DPS or we can't find a tank, or a healer or whatever other valid complaints they have against the game, when going out looking at a new game, they are actually looking for exactly that something new and different, not more of the same that they have in WoW. Hence the reason why after checking out X game, most have gone back to playing WoW, because all of these games have the same basic model and structure.

 

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formerly_addicted 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
25man raids? nope, the average wow player wants spoon feed content like the aoe fest in wotlk which can be played by a monkey

 

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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Trigeminal posted:
Most game companies would die to have 10ish million paying subscribers and they'd put competent people in charge... most.


Most companies would be happy with just having the number of people they claim to have lost since the expansion, hell its still more than RIFT has.

 

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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
"So as we're heading further away from an expansion launch, it's normal to see some declines," he continued."



He means except for all the other expansions. Yeah, that's it.

 

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GutterSludge 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Spookysheep posted:
"So as we're heading further away from an expansion launch, it's normal to see some declines," he continued."



He means except for all the other expansions. Yeah, that's it.


Bingo.

 

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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Spookysheep posted:
"So as we're heading further away from an expansion launch, it's normal to see some declines," he continued."



He means except for all the other expansions. Yeah, that's it.


Exactly.. or are we not further from BC and WOTLK? nerd

whistling

 

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The_Korrigan 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
JaconKin posted:
It is why it is my opinion after examining and analyzing what has taken place in the genre since I started playing it and following it that I think the reason the next WoW killer after the next WoW killer hasn't succeeded isn't because of them not changing the game model, it is the game model itself that has caused failures and keeping with the thought that if the wheel isn't broken, don't fix it.
I don't agree. The supposed "WoW killers" failed simply because they tried to copy WoW, but failed to deliver similar or better quality. They failed to achieve what WoW achieved with Everquest. Nothing more.

There are a lot of people out there who don't know anything better than the EQ clone model (which is also the WoW clone model of course). You tell them about UO, about AC1, they wonder how those games have worked without raids. Typical WoW player who never played anything else reaction towards Guild Wars 2 when he saw the class videos with the kickass moves showcased: "won't that look weird in raids?". True story.

Guild Wars 2 seems to follow the AC1 spirit, makes you really feel like a hero, you, even just you alone. This is totally opposed to the forced grouping present in EQ clone style games.

I personally hope both SW:TOR (in the WoW clone category) and GW2 will succeed. But I've already said that about all previous games almost since WoW release in 2004. SW:TOR, if Bioware doesn't screw up (and EA/Mythic, the worst part of the deal), should be able to drain a decent part of the WoW "raid or die" population. If Arenanet doesn't screw up, GW2 should be able to drain another big part of the rest, among which most MMORPG veteran who know better than the EQ clone model. What Blizzard needs badly is a huge slap in the face. The ridiculous sub number loss with cataclysm is a sad joke, and won't affect them on the long term, they still earn more in a month than most if not all western MMORPGs in one year. What's needed for the MMORPG player community is that for once, the devs of new games don't fail. No more Conan, Warhammer, Aion, Rift, etc... because for all that we know for now, GW2 can also be the next big failure, and so can SW:TOR.

 

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Trigeminal 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
^^^
Agree that most games that copy WoW fail (Rift was my last one... instance queues and BGs again). I'm hoping GW2 breaks the mold enough for my liking. I have too many MMO boxes sitting in my corner as it is. Not holding out a lot of hope for SWTOR. It doesn't look like a long lasting MMO apart for a few crazed star wars fans. I give it 3 to 4 months.

 

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Trigeminal posted:
^^^
Agree that most games that copy WoW fail (Rift was my last one... instance queues and BGs again). I'm hoping GW2 breaks the mold enough for my liking. I have too many MMO boxes sitting in my corner as it is. Not holding out a lot of hope for SWTOR. It doesn't look like a long lasting MMO apart for a few crazed star wars fans. I give it 3 to 4 months.
Well, I give SW:TOR definitely more longevity than e.g. Rift because of Bioware and the story centered gameplay. The lore in Rift was basically non existent. I hope SW:TOR will keep me busy until GW2 with that aspect, making it more than another "pew pew" game. It's only hopes though, and I won't buy it until I've tried it for free first.

Back on topic though, I don't see WoW die anytime soon (soon meaning, the next 5+ years). Even if SW:TOR and GW2 are both successes, WoW will still sport its huge subscription numbers and will remain viable for years and years. There are a lot of players who aren't ready for a change, they are comfortably installed in their daily WoW routine and don't even consider starting from scratch in a totally new game.

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
The_Korrigan posted:
JaconKin posted:
It is why it is my opinion after examining and analyzing what has taken place in the genre since I started playing it and following it that I think the reason the next WoW killer after the next WoW killer hasn't succeeded isn't because of them not changing the game model, it is the game model itself that has caused failures and keeping with the thought that if the wheel isn't broken, don't fix it.
I don't agree. The supposed "WoW killers" failed simply because they tried to copy WoW, but failed to deliver similar or better quality. They failed to achieve what WoW achieved with Everquest. Nothing more.

There are a lot of people out there who don't know anything better than the EQ clone model (which is also the WoW clone model of course). You tell them about UO, about AC1, they wonder how those games have worked without raids. Typical WoW player who never played anything else reaction towards Guild Wars 2 when he saw the class videos with the kickass moves showcased: "won't that look weird in raids?". True story.

Guild Wars 2 seems to follow the AC1 spirit, makes you really feel like a hero, you, even just you alone. This is totally opposed to the forced grouping present in EQ clone style games.

I personally hope both SW:TOR (in the WoW clone category) and GW2 will succeed. But I've already said that about all previous games almost since WoW release in 2004. SW:TOR, if Bioware doesn't screw up (and EA/Mythic, the worst part of the deal), should be able to drain a decent part of the WoW "raid or die" population. If Arenanet doesn't screw up, GW2 should be able to drain another big part of the rest, among which most MMORPG veteran who know better than the EQ clone model. What Blizzard needs badly is a huge slap in the face. The ridiculous sub number loss with cataclysm is a sad joke, and won't affect them on the long term, they still earn more in a month than most if not all western MMORPGs in one year. What's needed for the MMORPG player community is that for once, the devs of new games don't fail. No more Conan, Warhammer, Aion, Rift, etc... because for all that we know for now, GW2 can also be the next big failure, and so can SW:TOR.


As I said before agree to disagree on the point of why other games have failed.

As far as Blizzard needing a big slap in the face, this we can agree upon. The game and Blizzard for the most part has become stagnant and complacent with WoW and its development. It being the King and all is impressive, as are the numbers of subs that it has and how many would crave to have those numbers. It is one of the reasons you say in your next post that it won't "die" anytime soon and will still see a long life ahead of it. Yet to the opposite side of that is that without any real competition to the game, Blizzard hasn't felt the need to actually innovate and try to improve, in my opinion at least, the game because it hasn't felt the need to do so due its place as King.

Overall I think we can both agree then that the desire to see both TOR and GW2 succeed and have a high number of players, figuring GW2 won't have subscribers, is the best thing that can happen to both the MMO genre as a whole and actually WoW.

Now as far as TOR is concern as I said I have my reservations of the game and actually one of the Biggest is how they are handling the overall aspects of the game. I am wary as well and remember the well the whole Mythic and WAR fiasco. I am seeing in many ways a similar type of issue occurring with TOR. Espcially since they are claiming copyright to take down videos of the game, that don't even have Beta leaked material. I'll post a link to a youtube video discussing this. So the only place you can get videos or information about the game are from what EA/Bioware is allowing to be put out there on their own sites and what they give gamesites. Not even fan made video of the game being played at a Con. Now, I don't think that the results will be the same, but I also think it would behoove EA/Bioware to drop the NDA well before release, not two weeks like they did with WAR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdzglthcN9o&feature=player_embedded

 

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The_Korrigan 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
JaconKin posted:
I don't agree. The supposed "WoW killers" failed simply because they tried to copy WoW, but failed to deliver similar or better quality. They failed to achieve what WoW achieved with Everquest. Nothing more.
That's why, in my opinion, you fail to appraise the real reasons of why those games failed. WoW cloned the EQ game concept, and succeeded. Because they didn't simply clone it, they improved it. Rift, Aion, Warhammer, etc... (and even arguably LOTRO, even though that game is decently successful) tried to do the same with WoW, but failed at improving the concept. Therefore they created a sub par WoW clone, and players were all like "why do I play this crap, when I can play the much better original".
You can clone the WoW concept and improve it. And even more nowadays. Problem is, nobody was up to the job until now.

 

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Voqar 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
WoW is still the best MMORPG out there but it has been years and cata was and is a weak expansion. Bliz management has nobody to blame but themselves for letting down their players in that they continue to let GC and the stooges run WoW into the ground.

When WoW hit it raised the bar for quality standards in MMORPGs.

At the same time, the number of players in the genre increased dramatically while the quality of player dropped equally dramatically. The new generation of MMORPG players is selfish/solo/me-first, less willing and able to figure anything out, antisocial, generally helpless, and so on.

With cata bliz largely embraced this new generation of MMORPG morons, I guess...I really can't figure out what their design goals are/were, why they gutted so much of a runaway successful game, why they borked raiding, or why GC has a job.

The biggest failings of cata are -

- repeating wotlk content (rep grinds and instance flow) exactly with nothing new or fresh. Previous expansions refined questing, leveling, rep grinding, instances - cata copied wotlk and added nothing (except reintroduction of tedium maybe, in that 5-mans are longer and more complicated, which is fun at first, til you're grinding them into dust for emblems and it's all brutally tedious)

- shifting to 10 man and coming out with normal/heroic modes allowed more people to raid than ever before in wotlk, then in cata they pulled the rug out, ratched normal up too high, and shifted raiding back to elite raiders only, tearing apart guilds, causing more player movement than ever, wiping out endgame for many - dumbest move ever

- gutting too many core systems of one of the most successful games ever - you don't redo or "fix" what isn't broken


I would also imagine that this suck economy we live in is a factor too. There are less luxury dollars to spend. If you're burnt out on your MMORPG of choice you're probably more likely to cancel than to keep paying while you're taking a break or not playing. If you have no job or times are harder, you might not wanna pay game subs. This is probably a small factor in WoW having a decline rather than the attrition or slow growth it has previously experienced.

...on top of GC and the b-team running WoW into the ground.

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
The_Korrigan posted:
JaconKin posted:
I don't agree. The supposed "WoW killers" failed simply because they tried to copy WoW, but failed to deliver similar or better quality. They failed to achieve what WoW achieved with Everquest. Nothing more.
That's why, in my opinion, you fail to appraise the real reasons of why those games failed. WoW cloned the EQ game concept, and succeeded. Because they didn't simply clone it, they improved it. Rift, Aion, Warhammer, etc... (and even arguably LOTRO, even though that game is decently successful) tried to do the same with WoW, but failed at improving the concept. Therefore they created a sub par WoW clone, and players were all like "why do I play this crap, when I can play the much better original".
You can clone the WoW concept and improve it. And even more nowadays. Problem is, nobody was up to the job until now.


So now if we go back to the fact that WoW actually cloned the EQ game concept and improved upon it and other games failed to do this adequately enough. EQ released back in 1999. Using your argument then every game since then, and even WoW, has either had success or little success in copying and improving upon the model that was first done by a game released in 1999, it is now 12 years later.

Let's move away from the MMO genre for a second and go with another genre, the first person shooter. This genre got started when you had iD release Wolfenstein 3D and Doom. I will go with Doom as it had a larger impact on the genre than Wolf 3d did. When Doom exploded on the scene there were plenty of other games that all of a sudden came out and copied Doom. The basics of gameplay was to escape a level by finding keys so you could move onto the next level. Even when Quake came out in 1996 this was the basics of gameplay.

A year later though Quake 2 releases and instead of running around trying to find keys and the exit, it added various mission objectives that needed to be completed. In the early years of the FPS everybody was playing catch up to iD and what they were doing in with the genre. Now that is what you were supposed to be doing in the game as far as actual game play goes. Yet, how the games actually controlled eventually evolved as well. With the early FPS shooters you were stuck on the X axis and had to shoot your enemies and you were stuck to the ground. Eventually, the Y Axis was added and you had the ability to jump. Then eventually the Z axis gets added as well and even further abilities to game play get added.

Now, the entire FPS genre could be stated that it is still a clone of the initial game that made the genre popular in the first place, Wolf 3d and Doom. I mean the basics of the gameplay are the same, shoot and kill things, yet with out actually evolving what players were actually doing in the game and how they did, the genre wouldn't now be probably the most popular and successful genre currently in games. If all games still played like Wolf 3d and Doom, copying that model for 12 years, the genre would have died out quickly.

Now, the basis for your argument is that the only reason other MMOs haven't succeeded like WoW is because they haven't been able to copy the 12 year old Model of EQ and actually improve upon it or refine it like WoW was able to succeed in doing. In this you are wrong. It isn't the failure of a company in how well they actually improved upon the model or lack of it. It is the 12 year old model itself and if WoW and its success at having successfully achieved the improvement of the model, than the success of WoW has in many ways stagnated the genre. The reason being that every body has been trying to capture that same success found with WoW, all based on a 12 year old game model.

I'm surprised the damn genre has lasted as long as it has if this is the case. The entire genre has become a stagnated pile of crap then if everything is based on a game model of 12 years. The genre can't survive if it continues trying to copy a 12 year old game model, just like how the FPS genre wouldn't have survived if the games still played like Doom. No wonder other games in the genre have only been able to find marginal success at best. The genre for all intents and purposes hasn't evolved one bit in 12 years basically. It needs a good kick in the nuts and thankfully it looks like Guild Wars 2 is actually providing that swift kick the genre sorely needs.

 

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Fedup23 
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....or the game is 7 YEARS OLD..and people even get tired of banging the same hot chick for 7 looong years. After 7 years of the same thing it gets old..suddenly her left foot over your shoulder and her right toe in your ear is actually annoying... her great lasagna eventually tastes ..eh..ok. Her Jennifer Aniston hairdo only fits in while she is actually watching "friends". Things get old..oh well.

PS ..honey..this wasn't about you. love

 

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Ugh_Lancelot 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
formerly_addicted posted:
25man raids? nope, the average wow player wants spoon feed content like the aoe fest in wotlk which can be played by a monkey

As someone with no vested interest in the raid-vs-casual debate these days, that sounds like it came from a person terminally afflicted with raid-or-die myopia. Hyperbole doesn't increase the validity of a position. Also, what exactly was your point? That up through WotLK, said "monkey" mode was not a good business model for the game, generally? Or that you personally didn't like it?

 

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GutterSludge 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Several points are being overlooked in this discussion.

1. "What everyone else is doing"...

When you go to buy any game, one of the first thins that comes into play is if you know anyone else that has it, or is planning on getting it. When AC met with the mass exodus, I know I didn't give a rats ass about what 'model' Warcraft followed. The only options at the time were WOW or Vanguard, and what mattered was who(and how many) was/were playing what.

I knew Blizzard. I knew them from SC, and Diablo, and my computer at the time met the req's for WOW. Vanguard was a completely different story, and many of my friends and colleagues thought the game had promise, but also knew we were not going to buy completely new PC's to play a $50.00 game that we may or may not like and stick with.

I chose WOW, and it had absolutely nothing to to with the model. I enjoy PVP, and WOW offered the most potential targets. Coupled with the computer requirements, It was the easy choice.


2. More computer users than ever.

I've said this before, and I will say it again. You add an exponential amount of computer users compared to previous years, and after they complete their e-mail and instant messaging, they start looking for something else to do. Refer back to number 1, and the MMO player-base explodes exponentially to the numbers we see today. It has much much more to do with computers becoming cheaper and becoming a part of every household than it has to do with WOW.

WOW benefited from this, but did not cause this. Again, absolutely nothing to do with the game model.

3. With the two main factors out of the way, lets discuss "model", and player retention. You have this "new" genre of MMO players, many of which started their MMO careers with WOW, a game which requires very little "skill" as far as dexterity goes, and is gear based.

You jump through the hoops to acquire the gear, you win. End of story. You are higher level than a mob (or player), you win, End of story.

The problem with the games that have tried to take a slice of the MMO pie from WOW, is that they follow the same model. The new genre of MMO player already has that in WOW, why give up the time vested to do the same thing under a different game title?


Blizzard was in the right place at the right time. They already had an immense server backbone from Diablo and Starcraft, and were ready to handle the influx of this "new" mmo player-base. They offered a low system requirement, low skill game, and were in the position to meet the demand of the group described in 1 and 2 above, in addition to the "original" group of mmo players that came from EQ, UO, AC and the like as those games began to show their age, and petered out.


Now that the "new" MMO players have been exposed to the no skill, gear based model, it is going to take a completely different model to pull them away from WOW. Something like AC would probably be too complicated for most of them, but with the success of FPS such as MWF and others on consoles, perhaps we don't give them enough credit in that aspect. Perhaps the masses are looking for a skill based, open loot table, sandbox MMO, and they just won't know it until they play one.

Unfortunately, they can't play one until one is developed.









 

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JaconKin 
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Good post Gutter on the how and why of Blizzard's success and WoW's climb to the top.

 

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Spookysheep 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
With social networking being an ingrained part of life to the newest generation, maybe the time of MMO's has past, and we are just all old enough to have been there during their rise and fall (kind of like the cowboys of the "old west", which in reality, was only about a 15 year period in history, then was gone forever, yet immortalized and romanticized as if it has lasted for generations) o.0

 

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Zero_Washu 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
GutterSludge posted:


Blizzard was in the right place at the right time. They already had an immense server backbone from Diablo and Starcraft, and were ready to handle the influx of this "new" mmo player-base. They offered a low system requirement, low skill game, and were in the position to meet the demand of the group described in 1 and 2 above, in addition to the "original" group of mmo players that came from EQ, UO, AC and the like as those games began to show their age, and petered out.





I think you fail to properly credit with Blizzard bringing out a game at a level of polish that had not really been seen before in the MMO genre. I went through UO (and even some half assed attempts at MMOs before - when massive was still less than 100), AC, EQ, and such, but nothing matched the polish evident in WOW. Hell far too many games still feature shadow boxing instead of the fluid if not visceral melee that you find in WOW encounters. No, they not only showed up at the right time they were loaded for bear.

 

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The_Korrigan 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Zero_Washu posted:
I think you fail to properly credit with Blizzard bringing out a game at a level of polish that had not really been seen before in the MMO genre. I went through UO (and even some half assed attempts at MMOs before - when massive was still less than 100), AC, EQ, and such, but nothing matched the polish evident in WOW. Hell far too many games still feature shadow boxing instead of the fluid if not visceral melee that you find in WOW encounters. No, they not only showed up at the right time they were loaded for bear.
Spot on:
- They showed at a time where people where looking for something to replace their first gen MMO.
- They delivered quality.

And the second point is what almost every MMO after WoW failed to deliver. WoW set a new quality standard. It was not perfect, mind you, but still way better than any other MMORPG before, and even after it.

 

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Arcilite_I 
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Yea, WoW was very polishes at launch, if you could:

1) Log in

2) stay logged in


Other than that, sure the game was awesome. Funny how you forget about them literally giving away days and sometimes a week of free time due to downtime.

 

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Arcilite_I 
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polished*

 

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Sprawl-zero1eye- 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Spookysheep posted:
With social networking being an ingrained part of life to the newest generation, maybe the time of MMO's has past, and we are just all old enough to have been there during their rise and fall (kind of like the cowboys of the "old west", which in reality, was only about a 15 year period in history, then was gone forever, yet immortalized and romanticized as if it has lasted for generations) o.0

In a way, you might be right regarding the subscription-based MMOs. The cover of PC Gamer this last month read "10 huge MMOs that have gone free to play".

 

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JaconKin 
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Aye, who knows, TOR may very well be the last subscription based MMO to get released. Depending upon how restrictive and nonrestrictive the F2P model is and just as long as you can't buy your way to the top. I know LOTRO has done quite well since it has gone to a hybrid F2P model, being able to release more content than when it was just sub based.

Honestly, it is one of the reasons I'm looking forward to Guild Wars 2 so much beyond what it is offering game play wise, the fact that it is Free once you buy the game is a big plus. The whole idea of a subscription was one of the reasons it took me so long to finally play a MMO in the first place.

 

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Ugh_Lancelot 
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Arcilite_I posted:
Yea, WoW was very polishes at launch, if you could:

1) Log in

2) stay logged in


Other than that, sure the game was awesome. Funny how you forget about them literally giving away days and sometimes a week of free time due to downtime.



Oh, come on now. I know it's fun to bait the token idiot but the point does stand that excluding the launch bugs (getting stuck on mining veins, booted when Hillsbrad crashed, etc.) you must admit that the combat system did have a very fluid and responsive feel. /shrug

 

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Arcilite_I 
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Ugh_Lancelot posted:
Arcilite_I posted:
Yea, WoW was very polishes at launch, if you could:

1) Log in

2) stay logged in


Other than that, sure the game was awesome. Funny how you forget about them literally giving away days and sometimes a week of free time due to downtime.



Oh, come on now. I know it's fun to bait the token idiot but the point does stand that excluding the launch bugs (getting stuck on mining veins, booted when Hillsbrad crashed, etc.) you must admit that the combat system did have a very fluid and responsive feel. /shrug


Combat system was fluid, sure. When you could log in, stay logged in, weren't rubberbanding everywhere, weren't lagging, weren't stuck looting, weren't stuck mining/herbing, weren't stuck in combat and couldn't eat/drink, weren't getting los'd through walls by mobs...I could go on.

Korrigan forgets that WoW had a LOT of issues when it came out. The DK has literally blinded him to anything prior to WotLK.

 

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Arcilite_I 
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I'm not saying I didn't enjoy the game back then either, it was fun as hell, just that it's damn foolish to pretend the game was without issues.

 

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The_Korrigan 
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What's always amusing is when the trolls shoot themself in the foot because they lacked the ability to read and understand what was written fully...

peace

 

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Not as amusing as watching you kiss Blizzard's ass all the time.

 

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GutterSludge 
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Polish?

Of course it had more "polish"...lets look at the original system requirements compared to say, AC at its launch...

AC:
SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS
MINIMUM PC REQUIREMENTS
Minimum CPU Type: Pentium
Minimum CPU Speed: 166 MHz
Minimum RAM Required: 32 MB
Minimum Hard Disk Space: 150 MB
Graphics Type: SVGA
Graphics Resolution: 800x600
Color Depth: High Color
14.4 k Modem or better.

WOW Vanilla:
Windows® System 98/ME/2000/XP OS:

800 MHz or higher CPU
256 MB or more of RAM
32 MB 3D graphics card with hardware transform and lighting, such as GeForce 2 or better
4 GB or more of available hard drive space
DirectX® 9.0c or above
A 56k or higher modem with an Internet connection


Saying WOW had more "polish" is like saying MWF black ops on the 360 had more "polish" then Atari's "ET" for the 2600.


Of course it did. When you compare what was there, with the technology of the time, AC blows WOW out of the water in every aspect.


Polish. Stupidest comparison that could possibly be made between old and new games.

 

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Say what you want about WoW graphics but one of the big drawing points at the time for me giving it a look was that I didn't have to upgrade my graphics card because somebody thought the photo real look was what people really wanted rather then game play.

Once that you decide that the pixels don't really matter all that much, most of the games are very close in game play.

Story line falls in the same category for me, who cares.

Just give me a game where I can maneuver my toon, kill stuff and progress in some fashion.

 

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Arcilite_I 
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What's amusing is how every time Korrigan wants to insult somebody but can't think of anything to say he starts his post off with "What's amusing is".

 

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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
formerly_addicted posted:
25man raids? nope, the average wow player wants spoon feed content like the aoe fest in wotlk which can be played by a monkey

 

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Zero_Washu 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Arcilite_I posted:
Ugh_Lancelot posted:
Arcilite_I posted:
Yea, WoW was very polishes at launch, if you could:

1) Log in

2) stay logged in


Other than that, sure the game was awesome. Funny how you forget about them literally giving away days and sometimes a week of free time due to downtime.



Oh, come on now. I know it's fun to bait the token idiot but the point does stand that excluding the launch bugs (getting stuck on mining veins, booted when Hillsbrad crashed, etc.) you must admit that the combat system did have a very fluid and responsive feel. /shrug


Combat system was fluid, sure. When you could log in, stay logged in, weren't rubberbanding everywhere, weren't lagging, weren't stuck looting, weren't stuck mining/herbing, weren't stuck in combat and couldn't eat/drink, weren't getting los'd through walls by mobs...I could go on.

Korrigan forgets that WoW had a LOT of issues when it came out. The DK has literally blinded him to anything prior to WotLK.


Funny thing is, I remember a few hours of problems on across a few days during launch. I guess some people are just hell bent to believe what they want and any level of exaggeration is allowed. Really, if you had that many issues then perhaps it was you? I certainly didn't have some of the issues you described, hell I seem to lack many of the issues you have in game, let alone out of them.

 

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Nakal 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
I remember months of issues, including Blizzard actually stopped selling the game because it was selling faster than expected.  Icecrown was not nicknamed Ice-down without a reason though.  That server had problems for about 6 months..

 

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JaconKin 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
After reading the many examples here and what people remember correctly or incorrectly, it is safe to say that WoW released no doubt with certain issues and bugs that needed to be worked out during the course of time. Yet, to Korrigan's point when you were actually able to play, it sounds like the quality of actual game play itself, the tightness of combat and animation were of a quality not seen up to that time.

Having never experienced the game at launch, I can only comment from these impressions that seem to vary from one player to another. Anyway, the quality that WoW has achieved currently as it stands, not what it was like when it launched almost 7 years ago, is what any game coming out now has to match. Also unlike WoW at launch, players don't have the patience to sit around for a few months or weeks or however long it takes a company to actually fix bugs and complete the game post launch via patches. If you don't release quality at the start you will not retain players for long, because they go back to the game that now does have quality attached to it, WoW.

 

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Arcilite_I 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Zero_Washu posted:


Funny thing is, I remember a few hours of problems on across a few days during launch. I guess some people are just hell bent to believe what they want and any level of exaggeration is allowed. Really, if you had that many issues then perhaps it was you? I certainly didn't have some of the issues you described, hell I seem to lack many of the issues you have in game, let alone out of them.




Yeah because there were no server specific issues at all, I mean, they only had 100+ servers when they launched. Such a small scale project couldn't possibly see variations anywhere. What was I thinking plain

Happen to find this while browsing for something else:

http://vnboards.ign.com/world_of_warcraft_general_board/b19789/107608654/r107614046/

I especially like the last post in the thread, the words "cursed servers" totally back up your assumption that experiences across all realms were exactly alike.

 

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Spookysheep 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
WoW's complete UNplayability at launch was legendary. Anyone who does not remember it was not actually playing at launch, but started playing sometime after.

And the original servers remained "cursed" for months, and some well over a year (Icedown being the worst).


 

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heiromancerdrackus 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Very selective memory. WoWs launch was anything but smooth. I remember leaving Stormreaver the second Stormscale was put up because of all the issues that server had.

 

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Quazimortal 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Spookysheep posted:
WoW's complete UNplayability at launch was legendary. Anyone who does not remember it was not actually playing at launch, but started playing sometime after.

And the original servers remained "cursed" for months, and some well over a year (Icedown being the worst).



Hell I wasn't even playing at launch and I still know about it.

 

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Kordirn 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Yeah the server issues were pretty bad. I remember all the free time I got as well for the problems. The selective memory is quite funny though.

 

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vn_cuch 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
Anyone remember the bugged "loot" stance (both NPC and mining/herb nodes). That was fun. Running about for 10-15 minutes bent over stuck in "loot" mode.

Ahh...the good ol' days !

Lets not forget, wow really was a big improvement on the established mmo's. Refining, improving, polishing the core mmo atributes. the biggest issue with wow - they are not innovating. I guess it is a balance of if you innovate you risk "alienating" classic wow players, if you do not innovate you will end up "stale" and yesterdays mmo.

Anyone remeber the old EQ days...zones, camping rare spawns, corpse runs, no mounts, warriors had kick, bash, taunt....and that was basically it, Tanking was all about pulling, LOS, positioning and learning how to manage agro. Then wow came and suddenly, warriors had skills and abilities (just like other classes)...it was revolutionary !

 

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-Abysmal- 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
vn_cuch posted:
Anyone remember the bugged "loot" stance (both NPC and mining/herb nodes). That was fun. Running about for 10-15 minutes bent over stuck in "loot" mode.





i just rolled a female toon for that. tongue

i resubbed...think i am hooked for now, though cant believe how retardedly easy it is now.

 

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Unstruck 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
-Abysmal- posted:
vn_cuch posted:
Anyone remember the bugged "loot" stance (both NPC and mining/herb nodes). That was fun. Running about for 10-15 minutes bent over stuck in "loot" mode.





i just rolled a female toon for that. tongue

i resubbed...think i am hooked for now, though cant believe how retardedly easy it is now.


I resubbed, too, and I agree. Pre-80 is so ridiculously easy right now that it's not even fun. They made every class and every spec totally overpowered for questing content. I think if they just doubled the health of every mob or something, it might make things a bit more challenging as I'd have to press 3 buttons instead of 2 or something.

 

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Kordirn 
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Subject: WoW sub numbers continue to drop
-Abysmal- posted:
vn_cuch posted:
Anyone remember the bugged "loot" stance (both NPC and mining/herb nodes). That was fun. Running about for 10-15 minutes bent over stuck in "loot" mode.





i just rolled a female toon for that. tongue

i resubbed...think i am hooked for now, though cant believe how retardedly easy it is now.


Yeah I have been playing a prot pally I made today.. I am level 20, and my avenger shield crits for like 600.....

 

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