GrimTempest
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Think about this for a moment. E-readers have become commonplace and most books are offered digitally now. How long does it take before hacking your e-reader becomes as common as jailbreaking an ipod? How long before people are downloading their digital books from torrent sites? Authors who already get the short end of the stick with their publishers making most of the profit will suddenly face a situation where their profits sharply drop the same way it did in the music industry. Who would bother to write if they couldn't make a living on it and their work was just stolen?
Publishers should have run like hell in the opposite direction when digital books were suggested.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I hate to rain on your day, but book piracy is already huge.
There are entire sites dedicated to pirating books. Most of them have new releases the day they come out. All of the old books are available as scans and the new books come in commercial e-book form.
There are freeware programs that can takes any ebook format and change it to another. It beats all of the protection they try to use and can even set them up for cell phones.
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GrimTempest
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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just means things are further along than i thought.
if the publishers had a clue they would quit making digital copies for their books. at least its an option with books where it isn't with music. this is going to completely destroy the industry over the next 10 years if nothing changes.
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Caoilin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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just like it completely destroyed the gaming industry, the music industry and the movie industry?
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Even in industries with massive piracy problems I don't think the numbers break 20% (I might be completely wrong, I can't recall what I was reading very well but I think the numbers were on PC gaming) and literature certainly will never have the problems music and video games have.
People who read tend to be better, wealthier and outside the demographic that does the majority of the piracy.
It is a problem but I don't think it will be that huge of a problem.
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Raiztlin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I disagree.
I think the future is looking bright and shiny 
In the future, people won't need publishers, or bookstores for that matter. people will publish their books by themselves through portals dedicated to books.
Quality control will be at the hands of the users.
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Caoilin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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the interwebs and digital content has been a serious boom for music and film. there's zero reason to think this won't be the same for books. also, people were pirating books before publishers hopped on the digital express so if anything, them embracing it is ensuring they keep a lot of sales.
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Caoilin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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also, i downloaded all the scott pilgram graphic novels. i got about half way through the first one and went this is really entertaining so i bought them and deleted the cbr files.
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"Cao is really an asexual cricket from outer space" - Bernion
"I just wish you had man bits" - ShalisR
"i'll be your dirty ignorant redneck if you will be my drugged out cripple bitch" - shaggynuts24
"again, I'm stupid" - Brandun
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Altra_Shadowstalker
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Personally, when I finish my series, I would rather 500 people buy them and 10 million people download my books illegally, than have 20,000 people buy them. The point is to be read.
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Keonyn
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Raiztlin posted:
I disagree.
I think the future is looking bright and shiny
In the future, people won't need publishers, or bookstores for that matter. people will publish their books by themselves through portals dedicated to books.
Quality control will be at the hands of the users.
They won't need them, but they won't go away. Frankly, the idea of a completely digital society where you just sit at home and do everything is disturbing. Even if I could sit at my computer and book shop I'd continue to go to the bookstores because it's simply easier to go through shelves and pick what looks interesting and read a few samples, not to mention the atmosphere and social side to it that you don't get at home. No storefronts would be great for shut-ins and people with social anxiety, but it'd otherwise just be a leap towards a fatter, lazier America (we're bad enough as is).
Besides, hard copies will always have a place whether you like it or not. I don't mind reading books on an e-Reader, but I'll still take a physical book any day. I also keep and collect my books, and collecting a file simply lacks the same appeal. So yeah, digital media may well take the forefront, I don't see it completely replacing and destroying physical media and the relevant storefronts. Besides, if that did happen in most industries there would be such a massive loss of jobs that our economy would bust.
Also, publishers will continue to have a role, though maybe a decreased one, which wouldn't be a bad thing. A publisher still offers edits and corrections as well as marketing and exposure that is a lot more difficult for a single author to manage on their own. A collection of authors under an entity that manages these things for the group will continue to provide a larger benefit to a self-published author.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I tend to download the e-book for novels I purchase physical copies of because I vastly prefer e-readers to real books. My new hardcovers will probably never be opened.
All digital all the time please.
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Keonyn
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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That's just it, it's a preference thing. There's no denying that e-books will take a nice large bite out of physical copies and the storefronts will likely have to change their ways to cater to the digital market more. Still, the existence of e-books will not eliminate the demand for physical copies, it will just reduce it. There will always be those that prefer what they buy come in a physical form instead of a simple file.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Keonyn posted:
the storefronts will likely have to change their ways to cater to the digital market more.
Barnes and Noble already provides WiFi in all of their stores. When I go shopping with my mother I look through the book in the store then pick up the ones I want on my Nook.
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Eternal_Midnight
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Caoilin posted:
the interwebs and digital content has been a serious boom for music and film. there's zero reason to think this won't be the same for books. also, people were pirating books before publishers hopped on the digital express so if anything, them embracing it is ensuring they keep a lot of sales.
Absolutely disagree, because a book requires a serious time commitment that isn't required by music or film. A movie you can watch in 2 hours and have the entire story completed. A song is over for the most part in 3 or 4 minutes. A novel or non-fiction book requires days, weeks, or months, depending on how much you read and how fast you read and comprehend.
A book is a completely different type of media animal than movies or music or TV or video games, and will not be impacted in the same way as these other types of media.
I'm not saying that there isn't room for digital book sales, but rather that I think books/novels/non-fiction writing will be impacted much more dramatically than other forms of media. This new generation is growing up in a world that is much more fast paced than any other generation before it, and I think that long-form writing will slowly die as each successive year becomes faster and faster and faster.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I don't see how any of that means the book industry won't be positively impacted by digital media.
I believe your argument is a non sequitur; it is a matter of degrees. The music and movie industries felt a benefit relative to their existing production, the book industry will also feel a benefit relative to its existing production. You can argue that the book industry will enter a decline due to any number of factors but that is unrelated to how digital media will effect book sales.
The industry can decline while still receiving a boost through digital sales.
The idea that people are not interested in digital books in the same way they are interested in music and movies is disproved by the explosion of e-readers and the continual growth in that market. More and more companies would not be releasing e-readers and they wouldn't be going through multiple competitive revisions if digital book sales were not a huge market.
Market analysts are suggesting that 11 million e-readers will be sold in 2010 and research has shown that once people purchase e-readers their book purchases increase over 20%. That is the key point right there, that is why the music and video industry gained a boom from digital media- people are more likely to purchase more from their couch at home, especially when it is always readily available.
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vn_jurojin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I agree with the sentiment, but not the reasoning. I don't think how long it takes to complete any form of media has any difference at all on whether piracy will affect a particular market. What will make the difference is how many items are sold overall pre-digital media introduction. Music, games, and movies all far outstrip books in sales and thus a million illegal downloads won't have as large an impact as a large number of illegal downloads of a book which probably wouldn't have sold that many copies to begin with. It's a per capita deal.
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Caoilin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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book piracy isn't nearly as rampant as movie, music and game piracy though.
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"I just wish you had man bits" - ShalisR
"i'll be your dirty ignorant redneck if you will be my drugged out cripple bitch" - shaggynuts24
"again, I'm stupid" - Brandun
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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A quick loot through a torrent site and you see that a new movie or song has tens (some times hundreds) of thousands of people stealing it, a new book has one or two dozen.
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vn_jurojin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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You're looking at the wrong torrent sites for the numbers. Cao and I are on the same semi-private torrent site and she should know how many people torrent books. But as a whole, it's true that less people pirate books. I'll agree with that much. But if it ever upshifts it could cause trouble.
There are a few books that I'm seeing 25k, 30k, even 40k downloads and that's from one site (demonoid). If the numbers are just 1k-5k for the same book across all the public sites and even or higher on other private and semi-private sites the numbers could easily have reached 150k-200k for one book download. And that's just for torrents. For a movie or music media that wouldn't even make a scratch the surface, but even for a best selling book that's a huge dent in profit.
Have to look at total downloads, not how many seeds/leeches there are. After that you have the completely untracked direct download sites.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I'm using Demonoid as well. I guess pirating for pop-fiction crap is a lot higher than other genres.
Brandon Sanderson's new book was top 10 on the New York Times list and it only has 2-3k completions on Demonoid.
I've never seen a book torrent with more than 5,000 completions.
Granted, I don't pirate books and only go to download things I own physical copies of, but I haven't seen anything to indicate tens of thousands- at least in the genres I read.
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If I have burnt my bridges I will walk on water.
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I'm X X X bitch, triple X rated.
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Caoilin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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yeah i download what i have phsyical copies of atm. other stuff i will pay for.
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"I just wish you had man bits" - ShalisR
"i'll be your dirty ignorant redneck if you will be my drugged out cripple bitch" - shaggynuts24
"again, I'm stupid" - Brandun
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vn_jurojin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I'm still a paper book hold out, so I have yet to download a book other than a programming or computer book, but those are usually links in the books that I've already bought. I did pirate book one of the dresden files audio, but then bought the whole set.
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uglydwarf
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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actually, just the opposite is happening- at baen books, one of the first to offer free downloadable e-books, along with their fee based webscription service noticed something that suprised many people. their sales of new books, and old back catalog books by authors who had some of their book up on baen's free downloads section went UP, not down. people found it was great to be able to check out a author's work BEFORE shelling out money for a book they might not like. and also, there are many readers who, in addition to downloading a book, like to have a read "dead tree" copy of the book also. or do as Jurojin did-download a E-book and end up buying the book, or the entire series. so overall, E-books are actually GOOD for the market, not bad.
here's a link to their main site.
http://www.baen.com/
here is a link to the library.
http://www.baen.com/library/
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GrimTempest
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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i've been watching the book industry crumble for the last 5 years. i just don't buy into the idea that pirated ebooks are going to be good for the business. its also wrong to compare this to the music industry because musicians still make alot of money from touring. authors usually foot the bill for their own travels and the only profit they make from it is whatever extra books they encourage people to buy during the tour.
i'm sure some people do buy a physical book after downloading an ebook but i would bet the majority do not. theres really no way to predict for sure where things are going to go and we all have our own opinions. hopefully ten years from now things aren't as bleak as i'm afraid they'll be.
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Yossarian_42
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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GrimTempest posted:
i just don't buy into the idea that pirated ebooks are going to be good for the business.
I don't think the argument is that piracy is good for the industry, the argument is that despite piracy e-books are good for the industry.
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I'm X X X bitch, triple X rated.
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Altra_Shadowstalker
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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It costs $60 for an audiobook. That's crazy.
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eslocklier
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I have to disagree with anyone seeing this as a positive in the long run. The only positive I see is PERHAPS more people reading. But in regards to Raiztlin's comment about user controlled content and lack of need for the "gatekeepers", thats great, but it happened in the music industry too. And in movies. And in games. There's room for independent artistry, but theres also no money anymore. Sure, people can read your book. While they order coffee from you at starbucks. "Free" has bankrupted the creative industries.
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eslocklier
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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I have to disagree with anyone seeing this as a positive in the long run. The only positive I see is PERHAPS more people reading. But in regards to Raiztlin's comment about user controlled content and lack of need for the "gatekeepers", thats great, but it happened in the music industry too. And in movies. And in games. There's room for independent artistry, but theres also no money anymore. Sure, people can read your book. While they order coffee from you at starbucks. "Free" has bankrupted the creative industries.
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eslocklier
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Sorry for the double post! And on my first one too! Test...test...how do you work this thing? lol
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JaconKin
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I'm starting to think the future of literature is bleak
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Everything goes with everything else in many ways. The outlook of literature I wouldn't say is bleak, but in the current economic times it is certainly tougher. If the economy continues on like this for a much longer, then matters will begin to look even dimmer.
When people have less money in their pockets, than that money has to go to necessities and not on enjoyments, which books and literature are enjoyments for those who partake in them. This unfortunately effects not only the book market, but also the number of publishers willing to give new authors a chance to come out with work. If they have less money due to less people buying books then this also effects literature. Less new authors equals no progress forward in the overall scope of literature to begin. Piracy only compounds this effect, and can also be attributed to the poor economy. I'm not overly concerned with Piracy of books, though it is an issue and one that shouldn't be ignored, it is not the same as pirating movies or even music.
These two medium types have other ways of being listened or viewed, burned to DVD, put onto an MP3 player. E Book readers are rather new and I don't see everybody rushing out to buy them like MP3 players so people can listen to their songs while jogging or driving down the road to pick up some milk. Audio books though are another issue when it comes to that. Anyway, the simple fact of the matter is that those of us who read do so for both the enjoyment of the story contained and to relax. It is difficult to relax while sitting at the computer desk with even a 300 page book, not to mention the money and amount of paper if you do decide to print it out so you don't have to do this. This is especially true for people who spend all day in front of the computer. Like wise even laying in bed with your laptop on your lap trying to read and "relax" is I would say counter productive.
Piracy isn't my concern overall when it comes to literature, but the current economic outlook of the nation is I would say is the greater concern when it comes to the future of literature.
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